Car Sales Projection for 2015

The Indian Auto Industry is estimated to grow by over 7% this Calender Year. While we’ll present the actual sales data for 2015 in Jan’16; do find our predictions we estimate for this CY OEM-wise here. The overall industry size is touted to cross 27 lakh units this year (~27.3 lakhs including luxury segment). The highlights of our analysis is:

  • -The growth in passenger cars would be primarily fueled by the Top 3 OEM’s – namely Maruti, Hyundai and Honda. 
  • -Hyundai will emerge as the OEM with the highest growth this CY. Hyundai’s entry into SUV space (through Creta) has proved to be the catalyst to this growth.
  • -Maruti will maintain its dominance by a huge margin and would end at a Market Share of over 48%. The introduction of Nexa models has proven to be positive and we foresee stronger performance ahead. 
  • -The state of affairs at the Top 3 losers (GM, Fiat and Nissan) looks worrisome. These OEM’s will have to do something radical in CY16 to avoid further slump. We have already presented our recommendations for GM here
  • -VW to have a tougher time in next CY – can the German auto major avoid the downfall? Only time will tell. 
  • -Mahindra did gain some ground with TUV 300, however the overall sales haven’t been encoraging for this Indian MNC. With KUV100, the tables can turn very soon and put the OEM back to No.3!

Bike Taxi: The next commuter/transportation revolution in India?

Prologue: I landed at Bangalore airport and had an urgent meeting at Hosur Road scheduled in next 2 hours. And I get to experience the infamous Bangalore traffic and arrived at the meeting venue only after 3 hours (all thanks to major traffic junctions such as Hebbal, Manyata Tech Park, KR Puram, Marathalli, Silk Board etc). I lose a major deal and the effort of my visit to Bangalore was nullified. 

The above situation is not only a reality for Bangalore, but for almost all metropolitan cities in India. While the taxi hailing apps have found tremendous acceptance, a gap is yet to be filled. Even though cabs provide the luxury of being chauffer driven and carrying luggage around; time is something that it can’t substitute.As a resident of Bangalore, I can very confidently say that ‘Two wheelers are the fastest mode of transportation in the city’. The age of Bikes being used as commercial taxi is now here. There is definitely a latent need and has yet to be realized by service providers in the sub-continent.  
Bikes as Taxis are already well-accepted in Goa (driven by men called pilots) and many developing countries worldwide. Its extensive usage has been seen in highly congested cities like Jakarta in Indonesia and in many cities of Japan and Vietnam. Find here the terminologies used for bike taxis in various parts of world:
Terminology for Bike Taxis worldwide
Indonesia can be cited as the most suitable where bike taxis have flourished and start-ups providing the service have grown multifold. The best example for flourishing bike taxi startup can be Go-Jek and GrabBike. Both combined already have over 80,000 registered bike taxi riders in South East Asia! 
Bike Taxis seen at a junction in Bangkok (identified by Orange Vests worn by the drivers)
Image Source- Scooters Bangkok Nana by Khaosaming
Why Bike Taxi can work in India – 
  • Time-saver : Yes, Time is one of the most important factor in today’s transportation!
  • Last mile connectivity: There is no place that can’t be reached in a 2-wheeler. 
  • Chauffer-driven Bike: Can save you from the hassles of riding in strenuous traffic conditions.
  • Pocket Friendly: Obviously, the critical factor and let’s see the comparison with a traditional 4-wheeler taxi –
One would save over Rs.130 on a 10km travel in a Bike Taxi vis-a-vis a cab ride. PS: The Bike Taxi fares are calculated using the fares announced by recently formed Indian startup named Baxi. While similar startups are seeded in Delhi/NCR, the current Motor Vehicles Act is not encouraging similar businesses at other cities. With minor amendments in the Act, we expect the trend to catch the fancy of the Indian traveler and predict multi-fold growth in the acceptance of service. 
Challenges for Bike Taxi in India:
  • Motor Vehicle Act: Lack of licensing pushed companies such as “Bikees” and “HeyTaxi” to reconsider their business operations.
  • Safety Concern: The biggest challenge to the passengers will be safety considering Indian road/driving conditions are not favorable to bikers and exposure to rains/sunlight/wind is also there. (However, in developed nations, safety measures such as mandatory helmets, airbag vests, etc are being used for pillion riders.)
  • 3-wheelers / Autos: Auto Rickshaws already claim to provide the benefits of low-cost transportation and seems to be a safer alternative to bikes. 
Current Players in the market –
Source: ET
We at Management Punditz think that Baxi and M-Taxi have taken steps in the right direction and expect radical evolution in the way people would commute in Bike Taxis. Will they be as disruptive as Olas and Ubers? – only time will tell. 

Indian Car Sales Figures – November 2015

November 2015 Sales Figures – Pan India

November was quite an interesting month for the Automobile Industry. While the biggies (Maruti, Hyundai, M&M etc) posted growth, Toyota, Tata, Honda, VW and Fiat experienced a drop. However, the industry grew to ~11% in Nov’15 compared to Nov’14.

  • – Maruti proved again why it is the Big Daddy of the Indian Automotive Space. It has put everything to shape up the new Channel – Nexa. While Nexa experienced initial struggle in building equity through S-Cross; Baleno has made a significant impact by jumping to the 7th best selling car in India! However, the Numero Uno car maker couldn’t sustain Swift’s volumes and the cannibalization seemed inevitable. 
  • – Alto again pipped Dzire to stand on top of the table. The entry hatch segment as a whole has proved to be interesting. While Alto continues its dominance; Eon and Kwid are performing equally impressive as well. The baby Renault (Kwid) has set a new benchmark in the segment and has renewed the Indian consumers interest in the segment which was slowly losing steam. Hyundai’s approach is also appreciable – all efforts aligned by the Korean major to avoid losing Eon numbers to Kwid.
  • – While Baleno was raking the moolah, Grand i10 did the impossible (or was it?) – It overtook the segment leader by a margin (>1000 units!). Hyundai Grand i10 exceeded Swift’s volumes for the first time since its launch! Also interesting to see i20 volumes being untouched even with Baleno’s success.  
  • – Mahindra is trying to jump into shape through TUV. The picture seems positive as of now – M&M places itself 3rd in the OEM table. However, the sales of mentioned brands is a big question mark – Quanto (2), Rexton (4), Vibe (47) and Verito (174). 
  • Honda’s sales statistics again startles us – Jazz volumes lower than Amaze? The premium hatchback space has seen a turnaround – but Jazz numbers indicate that it is slowly losing steam? Also worrisome for Honda is Mobilio’s volumes – 89% de-growth! (as a matter of fact, Mobilio’s numbers has been lower than Lodgy as well).
  • Ford – The only product in the portfolio which had a month-on-month growth was Ecosport! The newbies (Aspire and Figo) are already struggling to provide steady volumes. 
  • It is saddening to see Tata’s most capable product – Zest’s decline in numbers. We otherwise have tremendous expectations from Zica – will this pull Tata out of the debacle?
We also share our concerns with the recent Chennai flood. Not only the Detroit of India has seen irrevocable damages in the past few days, the Automotive Manufacturing Plants in the area will take quite some time to recover. We pray for speedy recovery of the city and also salute the spirit of Chennai in these tough times. 
A look at the Top 25 selling cars –