Indian 2 Wheeler Sales Figures – Feb 2016

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Source: AutocarPro

Feb’16 saw a positive surprise from the Two-wheeler stable as the industry grew a healthy 12.76%. As healthy monsoon is expected this year; we foresee the momentum to continue and build up strongly in coming months. Bajaj’s INS Vikrant byproduct V 15’s shipment started off last month and 1,442 units were shipped to dealers in the first lot. Also notable launch of February was the Street Twin from Triumph – it will be the entry level offering from Britain’s largest motorcycle manufacturer. Launched at Rs.6.9 Lakhs, this 900cc bike contributed to 76% of Triumph’s sale last month! A look at the model-wise sales –

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Royal Enfield, Yamaha & Bajaj led the pack with stupendous YoY growth figures. Also these statistics were quite trivial for Feb –

  • Hero Motocorp again emerged as India’s largest 2-wheeler manufacturer with a Market Share of 39.4%
  • Honda Motorcycles India was a close second with a 25.7% Market Share. Hence the Top 2 manufacturers (Hero+Honda) over 65% of 2-wheeler Market share in India!
  • Honda’s dependency on scooters still prevail – Activa alone contributes to 60% of Honda’s sale in India!
  • Yamaha slowly strengthening its foothold in scooters and is reaping benefits – Fascino becomes its 2nd best selling product (after the FZ) and the scooterette portfolio (Fascino+Ray+Alpha) overtakes the bike sales (Saluto+FZ+R15+SZ) in Feb’16! Scooters contribution to Yamaha sales was 50.3%!
  • Bajaj still sets benchmark in premium bikes category – the Avenger portfolio crossed 30k units in Feb’16 (more than the Discover sales)! No wonder it has been one of the most profitable 2-wheeler entities in India.
  • Bajaj also has the entry level CT making an entry into the Top 10 list!
  • Harley’s cheapest offering – the Street 750 contributes to over 58% of Feb’16 sales for Harley Davidson in India. Also notable was Fat Boy’s performance last month – hefty 161% YoY growth!
  • Hero’s 3 entry level bikes – HF Deluxe, Splendor & Passion contributed to over 70% of Hero Motocorp’s sales! Also these stand tall in the Top 5 selling 2-wheelers list as well.
  • Hero loses out in the scooters race and none of Hero’s scooter offering could make an entry to the Top 10 list. Also TVS’s Jupiter emerges as the only scooter apart from Activa to be on the Top 10 table!
  • Moped (XL Super) proves to be the unicorn in TVS’s stable and still lists as the 5th selling 2-wheeler in India. However, Honda hopes to turn things around in this segment with Navi (dispatches started from 19 Mar’16).  Interesting name (NAVI – New Additional Value for India) and an interesting concept indeed (India’s first crossover two-wheeler)!
  • Mahindra’s flagship offering Mojo could sell only 96 units in Feb’16 – the condition remains similarly concerning for its other siblings. M&M is trying to revive volumes with the new Gusto 125, but things remain hazy for this manufacturer.
  • Continental GT remains the only offering from RE to suffer continuous de-growth! The cafe racer concept is yet to catch the fancy of Indian biking enthusiasts.
Honda Navi
Honda Navi (Shot from the Auto Expo)

Top 10 models in Feb’16 v/s Feb’15 –

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Analysis of World’s Biggest Car Market – China

The Automotive Industry in China has been the largest in the world  since 2008. Since 2009, annual production of automobiles in China exceeds that of the European Union or that of the United States and Japan combined!

While we had studied the US & Pakistan Car Market, we always wanted to present a report on China’s Auto Sales considering these facts –

  • Similarity to Indian Market – Although we are estimated 15 years behind Chinese Automotive Market, India’s demographics and population has immense similarity with the neighbor. Currently, Chinese Car Market is over 7 times that of India (whereas population of China is only 1.1 times that of India)! Car Sales trend of past 15 years –
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Car Sales Analysis – China
  • Chinese love for SUVs/Crossovers is also similar – In 2015, sales of Crossovers and SUVs soared 52% to 6.22 million units, and MPVs increased 10% to 2.11 million nos, while sedans slumped 5.3% to 11.72 million units.
  • Sheer Size – China’s No.1 Selling car Wuling Hongguang (Chevrolet Enjoy) sells higher than what Toyota+GM+VW+Nissan+Renault+Skoda sells in India! In 2015, cars sales in China increased by 9.1% – a growth rate just behind of that of Europe. It remains the only market in the world which has crossed the 20 million units sales. Cars Sales Registration data for Top International Markets –
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*USA, Brazil and Russia include light vehicles (trucks)
  •  Trivial History – Major Automotive companies are ‘State-Owned‘ – China has its traditional “Big four” domestic car manufacturers: Shanghai General Motors, Dongfeng, FAW, and Chang’an. All the automotive MNC’s are made to tie-up with a state owned corporation for setting up shop in the country.
  • Highly Profitable Sector – The profit of car dealers in China is quite high comparing to the rest of the world, in most cases 10%. This is due to the non-transparent invoice price as announced by manufactures and to the premiums they charge for quick delivery. Due to the lack of knowledge for most customers, dealers can sell add-ons at much higher prices than the aftermarket. There is no regulation by either the government or associations. Hence OEMs make big buck as well with the volume!
  • Electric Cars Revolution – China’s electric car sales outstripped that of US’s in 2015. Near to 2,50,000 electric cars were sold in China last year!
  • Brands Galore – Near to 445 Brands/Models are in sale! Just imagine the plight of an average consumer – which car to pick?

Car sales in China increased 8.7% in 2015 to top 20 million units for the first time ever. Out of the Top 50 selling cars in China (for 2015), 13 brands are common to the Indian Market. However, the Indian counterpart sales is nothing to boast about. The sales analysis to be found here –

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Top 50 selling cars in China for 2015

China also has a Dragon’s share for the premium brands. China contributes to over 1/4th of the overall sales of the German biggies. The world’s no.1 premium car maker BMW stands second in the list in China. Audi ranks first in the Chinese rankings and over 32% of its sales comes from China! In 2015, for the first time ever in a calendar year, China was the most-important single-country market for Mercedes Benz. Mercedes Benz sales in China increased by 32.6% to a record 373,459 cars. In China, Mercedes Benz is still around 200,000 cars behind leader Audi but nearly on par with BMW. Important for Mercedes Benz’s bottom line, a third of all S-Class cars are now sold in China with deliveries of the Mercedes-Maybach in China around 500 cars per month.

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Premium Car Sales for FY 2015 – China

Since the introduction of economic reforms in 1978, China has become one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies. As of 2014, it is the world’s second-largest economy by nominal total GDP and largest by purchasing power parity(PPP). China is also the world’s largest exporter and second-largest importer of goods. China is a recognized nuclear weapons state and has the world’s largest standing army and second-largest defense budget. We have a lot to catch behind this Asian Superpower – and ensure we do not repeat mistakes that it did (the growth in cars made it the most polluted country in the world as well – right time to focus on BS6 and Electric Cars). Also Indian Government should initiate reforms on infrastructure and public transportation to target holistic growth.

Is India BS6 ready?

Union Transport Minister, Nitin Gadkari’s tweet on leapfrogging to BS6 emission standards sparked a heated debate on the topic previously. However, Oil Companies and Auto Manufacturers have shared their concerns in terms of the short deadline and are worried in terms of the investment required to adhere to the norm. While still the BS4 norms is not implemented across the country, the nationwide deadline of BS6 implementation (by 2020) has shocked the automakers.

First let’s understand the emission norms in India. It is primarily instituted by the Government of India to regulate the output of air pollutants from internal combustion engine equipment, including motor vehicles. It was first introduced nationwide in the year 2000, based on European regulations. Emission Standards timeline for 4-wheelers is as shown:

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Source: Wiki

The changes done for adhering to the norms is not only in the vehicle (like usage of catalytic converters), but also in the fuel. The fuel specifications of gasoline and diesel have to been closely aligned with the Corresponding European Fuel Specifications for meeting the Euro II, Euro III and Euro IV emission norms.

So why is it that the government thought of directly skipping to BS6 from BS4 (and this is why we support the decision) –

  • Exposure to air pollution is leading to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, which is estimated to be the cause for 6,20,000 early deaths in 2010! With this statistics, outdoor air pollution is the fifth-largest killer in India.
  • Savings in health costs for the public – Health cost of air pollution in India has been assessed at 3 per cent of its GDP!
  • Double standard of Indian OEMs – India-specific car emits 4 and a half times more cancer causing particulate matter and over double the amount of the poisonous nitrogen oxide than the same model made for Europe. So if you own a i20 in India, it is indeed much polluting than its European counterpart (irony is both are made at the same plant!).
  • Lag in Standards – While we are third largest emitter of CO2 gases in the world, we are generations behind in the terms of regulating the releases of these dangerous gases. As of 2014, only a few cities meet Euro IV or Bharat Stage IV standards that are nine years behind Europe. The rest of India gets Bharat Stage III standard fuel and vehicles, which are 14 years behind Europe.
  • Cities are affected the worst – According to a WHO study, 13 of the 20 most-polluted cities in the world are in India! The rapid growth of metropolitan cities is actually making them un-livable!

But, what are the challenges to achieve the deadline:

  • Oil refineries will need a substantial investment to upgrade – The shift of technology from BS4 to BS6 is likely to cost anything between Rs 50,000 crore to Rs 80,000 crore to petroleum companies! Considering the past implementation, the issues are genuine — the penetration of BS4 compliant petrol in the domestic market a full four years after its introduction in the metros, was just about 24 per cent, and that of BS4 high speed diesel only 16 per cent, according to government data up to August 2014.
  • OEMs have clearly said that going to BS-VI directly would leave them with not enough time to design changes in their vehicles, considering that two critical components — diesel particulate filter and selective catalytic reduction module — would have to be adapted to India’s peculiar conditions, where running speeds are much lower than in Europe or the US. The estimates of required investment to upgrade from BS-IV to BS-V are to the tune of Rs 50,000 crore.
  • Increased Size of the cars – Vehicles must be fitted with DPF (diesel particulate filter), a cylindrical object mounted vertically inside the engine compartment. In India, where small cars are preferred, fitting DPF in the limited bonnet space would involve major design and re-engineering work. Bonnet length may have to be increased, which would make vehicles longer than 4 metres, and attract more excise duty under existing norms.
  • Vehicle Safety – If the technology is inadequately validated, safety issues like un-intended acceleration or fires which may arise due to improper regeneration of the particulate trap. To achieve temperatures of 600 degrees Celsius required to burn the soot in DPF, and equipment manufacturers would have to work with temperatures of 400 degrees in sight. Usually, diesel is injected to increase temperatures, but the accumulation of excess fuel in the compartment can cause a fire. The injection rate has to be optimised and vehicles re-engineered for safety. The integrity of the vehicle too has to be considered. This would require validation tests over 600,000-700,000 km — a process that may take up to four years.

Technology requirements for upgrading to BS6 –

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Source: Indian Express

We support the government’s side of the debate and feel that it is high time we have a strict regulatory framework to reduce the pollution levels and implementation of BS6 standards will be a welcome step towards the endeavor.

Koenigsegg’s Regera – 2nd 1500 bhp Monster.

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Little was it know to the world that Bugatti’s Chiron will have a competitor ever so soon!! 2 days!!

Though we don’t have the luxury to drive these cars & really tell you how they feel to drive, We would like to present you with some Comparison about these  2  1500 bhp monsters.

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Both these cars take their owners for a Ransom.. Regerra – 12.71 Crore Rupees & Chiron – 17.4 Crore Rupees.

 

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Both these cars should be the Best of Production Hypercars the World has seen.

2017 Bugatti Chiron: The $2.6-Million, 1500-hp, 310mph Monster!

When Wolfgang Dürheimer (President, Bugatti Automobiles) was asked to plan a successor of Bugatti Veyron, he knew that he had to better the best and produce something invincible. Chiron was the outcome! So, do you think Chiron has all the ingredients to become the worlds fastest street-legal production car? The statistics on paper some how does –

  • Powered by an 8.0-liter quad-turbo W-16 engine
  • 1,500 Bhp
  • 1600 Nm torque
  • 310 mph speedometer (500 km/h)

The aforementioned specifications indeed has all the necessary hardware to outrun the outgoing Veyron and break the record for the fastest street-legal production car. The super car will cost a whopping $2.6 million (Rs.17.41 crores).

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This is what President Bugatti Automobiles had to say

Bugatti says the 2000kg Chiron is “the world’s first production sports car with 1500 hp.” It’s best to simply shelve any expectations of modesty on Bugatti’s part. After all, when the car you’re replacing produced 1200 horsepower, hit 258 mph, and cost more than 17 Crores , adding an extra 300 horsepower, 3 mph of governed top speed, and half a million to the window sticker matters. The Chiron’s redesigned 8.0-liter quad-turbocharged W-16 engine produces 1500 horsepower, 300 more than the outgoing Veyron Super Sport.

So wonderstruck! We are completely confident that the Chiron will trump the Veyron in all departments. It is undoubtedly an engineering masterpiece and the aficionados should be properly enthralled; atleast those who have the means to buy one!

So how does the Chiron sound? Play the video –

Source: Bugatti, CarandDriver & Motor Trend

uber MOTO – Bike Taxi!

Yesterday Uber announced its foray into bike taxi segment and have termed it Uber Moto. This move will make India as the second market where the world’s most valuable startup, Uber Inc will offer motorbike taxi! It is barely a week before that Uber had announced launch of its bike taxi service in Bangkok. Bangalore is chosen as the test city where the services will be initiated and the market will be explored. Uber has been very flexible in testing its India-centric innovations – earlier cash payments, later launching auto services and now bike taxis. Uber will be leaving no stone unturned to build India as one of its biggest market in terms of revenue. Just within few hours of announcement from Uber, India’s biggest taxi aggregator Ola declared its entry into bike taxis.

2UberMOTO, will have a base fare of Rs.15 and will charge Rs.3 per km apart from Rs.1 for every minute of the ride time. Ola will charge Rs.2 for every km apart from Rs.1 per minute ride time charge, on a base fare of Rs.30.

We had predicted the rise in trend of Bike Taxis previously here. Bangalore is seen as the breeding ground for bike taxi providers and is already home to over seven such start ups (Mu Ride, Pilot, Streetryderr, Rapido, HeadLYT, Hey Bob and Pillionaire). Bangalore is one of the most congested cities in India and two wheelers have earned their reputation as the fastest mode of transportation in the growing metropolitan. Bike Taxis have already tasted success in similar conditions in other Asian Markets (specifically Indonesia) and India seems to have a huge potential. The other city which has attracted service providers has been Gurgaon – Bikxie Pink, M-Taxi, N.O.W Bike Taxi, Rideji and Baxi have already established their operations here.

India’s infrastructure, road safety, weather conditions and government regulations will be the biggest challenges for these startups. However, we are sure that the consumer demand will slowly ward off these challenges and will nurture such initiatives. As per the state transport department, Bangalore had 3.8-million two-wheelers, including motor bikes, scooters and mopeds, compared to 1.1-million cars as of March 2015. India is also one of the largest markets for two wheelers with sales more than doubling to 16 million in 2015 up from 7 million in 2008. The availability of such numbers of two wheelers should enable easy access to bike drivers.

Indian Car Sales Figures – February 2016

February 2016 saw the hosting of  the biggest Automotive Exhibition in Asia with the hopes of spearheading the good times for the industry in the subcontinent. But, the absence of big (rather exciting) launches and the increased ‘cess’ proved to have an adverse effect on the consumer sentiment. The only notable showcases in the last month’s auto expo was the Brezza/Ignis from Maruti, BR-V from Honda and Hexa/Kite S from Tata.

The OEMs to taste growth in Feb’16 were primarily fueled with new ‘performing’ products in their portfolio – say Baleno for Maruti, Creta for Hyundai, KUV100 for Mahindra & Kwid for Renault. While other OEMs took the beating for not having a ‘FRESH’ offering! Renault & Honda have eventually launched refreshed avatars of their successful, yet currently ailing Duster and Amaze in Mar’16 – will the makeover help? Wait for Apr’16 for the answer.

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February 2016 car sales data
  • India’s largest car manufacturer – Maruti Suzuki again played all its cards and could successfully cross the 1 Lakh figure yet again! Though it saw a YoY decline in sales of its stalwart Alto, Swift, Celerio, Wagon-R & Ritz; additional numbers from its so called premium brand Nexa (Baleno & S-Cross) helped the Japanese car maker project growth in Feb’16. Rather surprising was the impressive growth in Omni & Eeco (8% & 13% respectively!). All this was attained even though the company’s production was disrupted from the Jat agitation (as the production was temporarily suspended).
  • Korean Major Hyundai is basking on the glory of Creta’s blockbuster success. Also to be appreciated is the OEM’s response to customer demand and manufacture >8000 units of Creta from its production line. It clearly exhibits the automaker’s seriousness for the Indian market and also the sensitivity to cater to the demand. i20 shows no sign of weakness from the stiff competition of Baleno/Jazz and proudly posts >10k sales figure yet again! However, Eon starts to face the heat from the French K(w)id! Renault is slowly eating into Eon’s sales (similar to what Creta did to Duster!).
  • Mahindra leads by example to define what ‘Jugaad’ really means! First develop a 1.99 L engine for its top selling market (Delhi), then build a compact SUV for Urban consumer and then offer a pseudo SUV-hatch for the mass buyer! The Indian OEM simply puts the global MNCs to shame in terms of its speed of market response and consumer demand. KUV100 has strongly placed the SUV-major in the hatchback race and the carmaker is slowly experiencing the taste of sales of petrol cars! M&M is now all set to revamp its ailing (or call it failing) Quanto and have termed it as Nuvosport! But the real concern lies in the fact that Mahindra would have experienced a de-growth of 13% if TUV & KUV wouldn’t be there in its portfolio this year!
  • Honda continues its fluctuating performance. Many-a-times it is difficult to assess on the month on month variance in their sales statistics. Ex: City’s performance in Feb’16 saw a YoY degrowth of 25% and MoM degrowth of 39%! (from a sales of 8037 units in Jan’16 to 4880 units in Feb’16). Also interesting is to see the lesser demand Amaze project a MoM growth (17% growth) and the newer sibling Jazz experiencing a MoM degrowth (-29%). In overall, the variance has costed the Japanese OEM its third position and seems that it’ll be unable to recover the loss and stay behind M&M for a while now.
  • Tata started shipping the Tiago from Feb’16. But yet the overall numbers decline! Even with the promising line up and impressive launches (Zest & Bolt) in the past year, the Indian consumer seems unforgiving for the past quality glitches and the brand fails to deliver. Can Zica finally change the game for Tata?

Lets look at the Top 25 selling cars of Feb’16 –

2TRIVIA – Maruti has 10 products in top 20 selling cars, Hyundai has 3 offerings in Top 10 & Renault has a formidable entrant in Top 10!

Sales Estimate of Luxury Brands for Feb’16 –

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Renault Duster Refreshed!

Crumbling Sales Figures!! If you can look at the data below you can easily understand that the Monthly average sales of 2012 was 3956 which further went on to increase to 4284 in 2013. However, in 2014 the sales average went down by 1000 nos. to 3317 cars/mth. Why? Terrano was cannibalizing the siblings sale. In Year 2015 too, though a brief rise was seen in the numbers (Jan~Mar’15 Avg. 3435 nos/mth); the launch of Hyundai’s Creta made the Renault taste dust!

Renault Duster – Sales Volumes, mentioned below for a quick reference.

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New Refresh – Duster, Will it help?

Renault Duster haven’t been refreshed since it was first launched though an AWD version was introduced in September 2014. The bland interiors was again a sore point for the SUV. 

The New Refresh 2016 Renault Duster was launched yesterday. The New Duster get a Manual & AMT Variant alongside with Petrol & Diesel Variants. AWD is retained. There are some updates both on the exterior design front and on the mechanical side. There is also a new interior.

On the exterior front, the new Duster gets new headlights, new tail lamps and a new grille. You also get a new set of wheels, which could have looked a little better than they do. The new Duster also get updated front and rear bumpers with new skid plates that have been finished in silver and a new orange paint shade which in our opinion looks quite stunning.

On the interior front, the new Renault Duster facelift gets an updated dashboard with a new centre console and updated instrument binnacles in a new instrument cluster surround. The new Duster will also get an updated touchscreen infotainment system that comes with inbuilt navigation. The new Duster also gets cruise control for the first time along with climate control which is also a new addition to the compact SUV.

Mechanically, the Duster gets two engine options, a petrol and a diesel. The 1.5-litre petrol makes 102PS of peak power and 145Nm of peak torque. The 1.5-liter diesel on the other hand gets two states of tune, a 85Ps and a 110PS. The 110PS makes 245Nm of peak torque and is also the only engine option to get the AMT gearbox option. The 110PS version also gets a top of the line variant with all-wheel-drive.

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Visually the New Renault is appealing to the eye.

Will it relive the glory days and help Renault build sustainable numbers?

We all know Renault would want it to be the Next K(w)id on the block, but with very minor changes to the exteriors & interiors volumes should stabilize at 1500 odd units every month. Also expect the Terrano sales to plummet even further making the gain in numbers negligible.

Our Opinion:

The changes are minuscule and we doubt if it could stand tall in front of the in-demand Hyundai Creta! We also await the launch of Honda BR-V which will make the segment even more interesting.

February 2016 Car Sales – Snapshot

February Car Sales India
OEM-wise Sales Data

The Valentine month didn’t prove lovely to the Indian Automotive Industry and almost all manufacturers suffered except the Big 3! (say Maruti, Hyundai & Mahindra). The outliers otherwise were the Renault-Nissan partners who could project some growth apart from the Top 3 players. In the premium brand stable, Merc leads the race again and is growing strong with a strong lineup of new launches and aggressive network expansion. However, the biggest dampener in Feb’16 proved to be the Union Budget – Prices of new cars are set to increase with a new infrastructure cess imposed on the industry. The budget proposes a 1% infrastructure cess on CNG, LPG and petrol cars; 2.5% on diesel cars and 4% on vehicles with ‘higher engine’ capacity. Though the so called ‘cess’ is touted to be used in improving country’s Road & Transport infrastructure; the idea seems to penalize customers for purchasing cars. As per the plan laid by the Finance Minister, Transportation Sector seeks the highest investment in this fiscal’s budget. Seeing the chart, the increased investment surely seems to be coming out of the pocket of new car buyers –

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Source: ET

The sales figures mentioned is offtake data (cars billed from OEM to dealers); it is expected that the dealers would have piled up their stocks anticipating the price increase and hence the actual performance may be much different (read lower than the seen numbers). March traditionally is positive for the Automotive Companies, but the increase in prices will surely affect the consumer sentiment and it will be a tougher road ahead for the industry. However, we have faith on the government’s plan and expect the Road Infrastructure to improve in next 6-9 months which will in turn breathe life to the sector.