November 2018 Two Wheeler Sales – Snapshot

A look at YoY Growth of the Two Wheeler OEMs and the Industry –

  • Two Wheeler Industry grew a healthy 7.2% v/s the same period last year.
  • Hero Moto Corp stands at the Pole position and with improving sales of Motorcycles has been widening the gap with Honda Motorcycles. Hero grew just 2.1% YoY and was able to cross 6 Lakh unit sales in Nov’18.
  • TVS & Bajaj have both shown exemplary growth this year. TVS has pepped up its scooter sales and was able to scale up its volumes pretty significantly. Both Jupiter & NTorq have been doing well in 110cc & 125cc segments. While Bajaj with its dynamic pricing of entry level two wheelers have escalated its sales numbers impressively.
  • Royal Enfield volumes are kind of stagnating and have actually de-grew -4.1% YoY. We hope that 650cc Interceptor & Continental will change the scenario for this iconic Two Wheeler maker.

Market Share Graph:

  • The Top 4 Two Wheeler manufacturers capture ~90% Market Share! This speaks volumes about the dominance well-established brands have in India. Even the Top 2 OEMs (Hero+Honda) cater to >60% of Two Wheeler sales in India!

Statewise Car Sales – H1 FY19

We have been analyzing statewise car sales statistics for quite some time and here we present the report for the sales of the first 6 months of this financial year; i.e. from Apr’18 to Sep’18. Snippets as below:

    • 17,41,234 cars have been sold in the first six months! Pl note that the statistics do not include the big festive months and Dec/Mar sales which are the biggest months in terms of automotive sales. Going by the trend; we expect the passenger car sales in India to go beyond 35 Lakh units for entire FY18.
    • West Zone has emerged as the Top Zone and is significantly ahead than the South & North Zone which have been placed No.2 & No.3 respectively.
    • Maharashtra retains the No.1 State Rank and contributes to almost 10.5% of national volumes! UP stands second with 8.7% contribution to the sub-continent’s numbers.

Sales Statistics of the States, Zone-wise:

      • The Zonewise Toppers are as mentioned: Maharashtra tops West Zone; Kerala for South; Uttar Pradesh for North & West Bengal for East.
      • Though East Zone has the highest number of states; the car sales volumes are the least in India. Even the Top Selling State of East; i.e. West Bengal stands in 13th place in terms of overall statewise ranking and contributes to just 3.3% of national volumes. Even the Bottom 7 states belong to East Zone.

Top Selling States Ranking:

We have gone a step further this time and tabulated Maruti’s & Hyundai’s Market Share in the respective states:

      • Maruti + Hyundai contribute to ~68% of passenger car sales in India! The Jodi has made the life of other OEMs pretty miserable as the rest of the OEMs have to fight for the remaining pie (30% of market).
      • Maruti has an overall market share of 52.2% for H1. Maruti’s dominance is clearly seen in majority of the states – Maruti has a Market Share of >50% in 22 out of 33 states! Maruti enjoys clear majority in North Zone and has a Market Share of whopping 54.2%. Even the weakest Zone – South has a market share of 49.7%.
      • Hyundai has a overall Market Share of 15.7%. Hyundai enjoys maximum acceptance in West Zone with 17.1% Market Share!

FY19 v/s FY18 statistics:

    • Only 6 out of 33 states have seen dip in volumes for FY19 when compared to FY18. The trend seems positive in the remaining states.

November 2018 – Top Selling Compact Sedans / Compact SUV’s / Sedans

Top Selling Compact Sedans:

  • Maruti is leaving no stone unturned to maintain its dominance in the segment and has been able to successfully maintain an average of >20k units in FY18-19. As a matter of fact; Maruti sold an average of 22,767 units of Dzire between Apr’18-Nov’18!
  • Honda’s Amaze put forth a tough fight to the segment leader at the time of launch. However, it was not able to match Maruti’s counter attack of increased supply and enhanced offers. The volumes are gradually getting rationalized at ~5k units.
  • Rest of the cars in the segment are just not showing any positive growth – the segment degrew by 0.1% in Nov’18 v/s Nov’17. The segment has seen a flat growth even though 2 models have got a fresh avatar (Amaze & Aspire).

Top Selling Compact SUVs:

  • Brezza is growing strongly and shows no signs of leaving any scope for other players to come anywhere near to it. It has significantly increased its production and is consistently averaging ~15k units/mth.
  • Nexon has been impressive with its consistency and has been regularly faring at No.2 spot in the list. It was significantly ahead of the No.3 contender (WRV) and looks to have stabilized with its volumes.
  • WRV & Ecosport sold almost equivalent volumes in Nov’18.

Top Selling Sedans:

  • The segment is going through a tough time. While Yaris could undoubtedly touted as the biggest failure of the year in terms of new launches; even the Ciaz hasn’t been able to gain significant volumes with the facelift – Ciaz degrew 4% in Nov’18 v/s Nov’17.
  • City continues to garner significant volumes in the segment and ranks 2nd in the list. Honda has been offering lucrative discounts for the model to match it’s price with the counterparts.
  • Verna stands third and sold just over 2.5k units in Nov’18.

Top 10 Selling Cars of November 2018

  • Maruti + Nexa again dominate the Top 5 slots. It has barely allowed any other marque to enter the Top 5 ranking!
  • Swift emerges the No.1 selling car of Nov’18 with sales of 22,191 units! It overtakes Dzire with quite a margin and it’s doesn’t seem to fizzle down any time soon. Practically if you see; even Dzire & Baleno are made on the Swift platform and collectively all three brands combined sold a massive 61,877 units!
  • Baleno recently crossed 5 Lakh units sales and was probably the fastest 5 Lakh units sold in the Indian Automotive space (span of 38 months)!
  • Alto was pushed to No.4 spot! Alto has been losing and gaining the Top Slot alternatively and is wisely played by Maruti Suzuki to highlight its other models!
  • Santro marks its entry to the list of Top 10 selling cars within the second month of its launch! Santro’s new avatar has garnered tremendous response and has a crucial importance – This should be the 4th model from Hyundai which could consistently list in the Top 10 selling cars (against the usual 3) and should also fulfill Hyundai’s vision of garnering collectively 50k units sales/mth.
  • i20 was the best selling Hyundai in Nov’18 and was the only Hyundai model to have crossed 10k sales!

November 2018 Car Sales – Snapshot

Tough Times for the Indian Auto Industry!

Source: Livemint

The Industry has seldom seen a dull festive season and the slowdown during Dussehra & Diwali has taken a lot of Indian OEMs by surprise. While the dealers anticipated festive rush and had stocked up pretty well; the negative sentiment led to lower conversions in the consumer end and the pile up of stocks was inevitable. This had a strong and visible impact on the Nov’18 Industry volumes. While we primarily share the Wholesale data (units dispatched from the Manufaturing Plant/OEM to Dealerships); we would want to highlight the FADA study which had published the end Retail Data (sale of car from Dealership to Customer). The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) published the vehicle registrations data of this year’s festive period; i.e. from 10 Oct’18 to 20 Nov’18 and compared with previous year’s festive period (21 Sep’17 – 1 Nov’17). The Passenger Vehicle sales de-grew a clear 14% and is a BIG reason for concern. The FADA report is as shown below –

The effect of the dull festive season was pretty evident in Nov’18 figures and almost all OEMs registered a YoY de-growth! The Passenger Vehicle sales fell by over 3% in Nov’18 when compared to Nov’17. Let’s see how the OEMs fared in Nov’18 –

  • Maruti Suzuki registered a de-growth of 0.3% and was led by the fall in Nexa volumes. Anything below 1.5L volumes for Maruti+Nexa looks insufficient.
  • Even with the launch of New Santro; Hyundai couldn’t avoid the fall and de-grew by 1%. While Hyundai posted a sales of >52k units in Oct’18; it struggled to achieve >43k units in Nov’18
  • Tata again overtakes Mahindra to position itself in the No.3 OEM spot. However the volumes fell by 1% in Nov’18 v/s Nov’17
  • With 2 launches in past 2 months (Marazzo & Alturas); Mahindra has been fighting hard to enhance its numbers. It has been able to maintain a flat growth with the new launches; but has lost the 3rd Rank. It’ll be interesting to see how things turn out post launch of S201 & Harrier for both the Indian OEMs.
  • Honda with its low base in Nov’17; was successful to register the highest growth amongst all OEMs (10%).

Let’s see how the Market Shares fluctuated in Nov’18 v/s Nov’17 –

  • Even with a degrowth in YoY volumes; Maruti has registered a high Market Share of 54.6%. Infact; the Market Share has grown by 1.7% in Nov’18; thanks to its high volumes and higher degrowth in other OEMs.
  • If observed clearly; the Top 5 OEMs have registered a positive Market Share growth; while rest ALL OEMs have declined! It clearly indicates that over a period of time; it shall be extremely difficult for the lower ranked OEMs to survive. Tough market dynamics shall test even the biggest OEMs and the race to profitability isn’t an easy one!

Passenger Car Market – 2018

Growth Analysis

Passenger car manufacturers are facing headwinds in 2018 and growth rate has slowed down to 6.4% (Jan-Oct 2017 vs 2018), despite some interesting launches like Maruti Swift, Honda Amaze, Mahindra Marazzo and Hyundai Santro. Automakers would be more cautious for the upcoming year because India will have general election in 2019, which may have some impact on passenger car sales due to the nervousness in the market, emanating from the formation of next Government. 2020 will see much larger impact as vehicle prices will certainly go up due to implementation of BS6 (Phase-1) emission norms, particularly for diesel engine powered cars.

Monthly growth rate in 2018 has been slow since the beginning of the year, except for the month of May and June, due to GST base effect. So, we summarized all the factors impacting the consumer sentiments at one place to understand the effect on the growth of passenger car market.

Note : highest monthly price in Delhi is considered as retail fuel price.

Despite nearly all updated productline, India’s largest car maker Maruti too is struggling in the second half of the year, thus dragging the whole industry growth numbers down.

All other industry players too are feeling the heat, with few exception summarized below.

While temporary factors will go away with time but what is here to stay is higher interest rate and highly vulnerable retail fuel price. Also, rising input cost and depreciating Rupee is having direct and indirect impact on the cost of making cars, even for homegrown companies like Tata and Mahindra. This at some point of time may push automakers for price hike, and lead to further worsening of consumer sentiments.

So, all these could lead to the possibility of higher car prices and even higher discounts in future by automakers to keep inventory in check at factory and dealership level and keep the business running at optimum level.

(The article is written by Rohan Rishi. You can connect with him at