Indian Car Sales Figures – June 2017

While the entire country was awaiting the biggest tax reform of the century; the Indian Auto Industry had to brace itself for yet another jittery month. The anticipation of price reduction kept many prospective customers at bay and even the OEMs/dealers weren’t ready to endure the loss for their stocks post price reduction (due to GST). Anyhow the retails numbers were much better than the numbers posted here (which is the dealer offtake data). The OEMs flooded the market with discounts and pull crowds into their respective showrooms. Even the automobile dealers were under pressure to reduce their respective stocks before GST implementation. The Industry in overall has gone through various challenges and the varying regulations have kept the OEMs on their backfoot. This led to the worst YoY degrowth Toyota has faced ever (YoY degrowth was over 85% and it ranked 10th in the list!). The Indian Auto Industry also de-grew over 11% YoY in June’17. The only silver lining is that all models have seen a significant price reduction after GST and will surely revive the demand – We expect the Industry to bounce back to double digit growth from July’17 onwards. Let’s look at the modelwise analysis here:

Highlights:

  • Even with the challenges revolving around GST, Maruti could post a positive growth. However, its bestsellers (Dzire, Swift & WagonR) couldn’t garner the second spot and lost it to Grand i10. Also the Nexa channel offerings – SCross & Ignis looks to be under pressure as the sales dwindle to all time low.
  • Hyundai’s star performer was again the Elite i20. It ranked No.1 in the Premium hatch category and dethroned Baleno from the top slot. Creta sales however was below par as the price reduction sought in SUV category was very high.
  • Honda is on a roll this year. The New City and the recently launched WRV has clearly revived the OEMs performance. WRV was able to overtake Ecosport’s numbers and has positioned itself strongly in the Compact SUV space. The strong feature list (Sunroof, Digipad & Cruise Control) in the WRV has made it a very attractive buy and the higher ground clearance has allowed to garner sales in upcountry markets as well. However, it seems to have cannibalized Jazz’s numbers to an extent – Jazz’s volumes have dropped below 1,500 units for the first time in past 15 months! Even the VW Polo sales were higher than Jazz in June’17.
  • Toyota is clearly disappointed with the way Indian Government has been changing the policy structure. Earlier the NGT ban on diesel vehicles, then followed by Demonetization and finally the GST. Because of this, Toyota had to bear tremendous losses and June’17 was a testament for it. The OEM clearly stopped its dispatches in June as the price decrease expected on its portfolio of products was very high (Fortuner prices were slashed by over 2 lakhs in July’17!).
  • While Renault had a blockbuster FY17; this year is full of challenges for the French automaker. Its dependence on a single model is costing it high and it seems to struggle without new launches. Any drop in Kwid sales impacts the OEM heavily and it isn’t able to significantly revive Duster’s sales (even post the launch of Petrol/CVT variant).
  • Mahindra yet again survives with the performance of its old warhorses (Bolero & Scorpio). With muti million dollar investment in new product development (Xylo, Quanto, TUV300, KUV100), it had expected to retain its dominance in UV segment. However, the poor sales figures of these models and stiff competition from the biggies like Maruti (Brezza) & Hyundai (Creta) has put the Indian OEM on its backfoot.

Look at Top 25 selling models of June 2017 –

Top Selling Hatchbacks (entry & mid level) –

Top Selling Premium Hatches –

Top Selling Compact Sedans –

Top Selling Sedans –

Top Selling Compact SUVs –

 

Top Selling MUVs –

Top Selling SUVs –

State-wise Car Sales Statistics – FY17

We have been closely tracking the state-wise car statistics in past 1 year. You can find the previous posts on the topic here and here. Indian demographics have always amazed us and the trend is very volatile. The same is seen in the statewise sales data as well. Ex: Kerala was the No.2 state in terms of Passenger vehicle sales in the first half of FY17, fell to No.5 position for the entire year. The other startling fact to be reiterated here is Maharashtra as a state alone sells more than 13 states in East Zone! Also there is no state from South Zone in the Top 3 states of FY17 (while South Zone is the second best zone in terms of numbers)! Also to be noted here is the volumes of Delhi market (without NCR sales) is over 2 Lakh units in previous FY.

The intent of this post is to highlight the contribution of individual states in overall passenger car sales and how seasonality effects sales in various regions of the sub-continent. A look at the Top Selling States for Apr’16-Mar’17 period:

Do find the Quarter-wise analysis here:

Indian Car Sales Figures – May 2017

‘I QUIT’ – these are the hardest words for anyone to utter. Generally an employee would quit an organization if he/she us not happy with the culture the company offers or if the growth opportunities are not ample or the remuneration is not adequate. Though we can cite many other reasons; these three looked suitable for the case presented here (General Motors exit from Indian market) –

  • Culture – While, Indian Government has promised a thriving environment with the promise of ‘Make in India’, tax-free zones, etc the policies have never been stable or OEM-friendly. Firstly acquiring land for setting up plant can have multiple hassles (or term it government approvals, land acquisition troubles, etc), policy changes have been pretty frequent as well. OEMs were taken by shock when NGT initiated Diesel-vehicle ban was temporarily imposed by Supreme Court; also sudden transition from BS3 to BS4 emission norms for all category of vehicles was threatening to 2-wheeler and commercial vehicle manufacturers. Even the home-grown Tata had gone through some of the troubles mentioned here. Recent news of jumping to BS6 norms by 2020 and all-electric vehicles by 2030 has made all OEMs wary about the amount of investments that’ll have to be made to survive in the Indian market.
  • Growth Opportunities – India has been an extremely competitive market where the top 4 players hold over 75% of market share. GM has struggled in its over 20 years of existence in the subcontinent. It played several bets (and with several brands) – initially with Opel, then Daewoo inspired models (say the matiz aka spark), then the Chevrolet and finally SAIC inspired models (Enjoy, Sail Twins). Also they expanded their network aggressively between 2011-15 pushed them harder to look into newer models to better the network profitability and sales volumes. However, the bets failed every single time! The reason the strategy failed – It was overly controlled by the Headquarters (Detroit). While Indian market had been extremely dynamic from beginning; GM lacked the leadership who could take progressive steps for the OEM here. They were busy doing the postmortem after every failure. The Karl Slym era was though extremely promising (during which the bestsellers touched the subcontinent – Beat & Cruze). But, even Karl left the path in between.
  • Remuneration – India has pre-dominantly been a hatchback market, which means lower margins for the OEMs and high initial investments (as the MNCs do not have the expertise in small cars). The amount of sales and margins the Global biggies make in the bigger markets is insane – Ex: Chevy sold 5,74,876 units of its best seller Silverado (stands No.2 in the best selling cars/trucks for US market) in 2016, which converts to 47,906 units/mth. The average price of this model is $50,385 (>Rs.32 Lakhs). When you compare this with the stats of its Indian sales, the numbers are extremely meager. Hence justifying the investment becomes all more difficult here. The same concern is troubling all other biggies (say VW, Toyota, Ford, etc). Look at the excerpt from ET

However, we believe GM has made an unforgivable mistake. Exiting Indian market at this stage has ensured that it wont be able to re-enter the Indian market (no more bets please!) and also the brand has taken an irrevocable downfall. GM forgot that it needed only 1 good product to gain its hold in the market (like what Duster/Kwid had done to Renault, Innova to Toyota, etc). It should have also learnt from the likes of Tata Motors which had struggled during the years and is now a formidable challenger to the No.4 slot. But it is both GM’s and Indian Consumers (who had bought Chevy products over the years) loss! It is also unfortunate to see that brands such as Peugeot, Kia are entering (or re-entering Peugeot’s case) and GM is giving up on the market.

Coming to May’17 business, it was a tough month for OEMs as consumers were confused to wait for clarity on GST implications and finalize their purchase. Also dealer fraternity were wary on the effect GST would have on the cars that were shipped from OEM to their stockyards. However, the Industry stood well and posted double digit growth. Good Monsoon forecast has positively supported consumer sentiments as well. While majority of the OEMs had a positive YoY growth; the likes of VW & Toyota experienced a fall in overall sales when compared to the same period last year. Let’s look at the modelwise analysis here:

Highlights:

  1. Nexa Channel (with S-Cross, Baleno, Ignis & Ciaz) posted a sales of 26,120 units! If we consider it as a different channel/brand than Maruti; it’ll emerge to be the No.3 player in the Indian market. Don’t be surprised to see it in the No.2 slot if the momentum continues in the coming times.
  2. Dzire launch was also in the news – The volume cruncher is now bigger and better! Huge aspirations now on the model and we are sure that it’ll deliver.
  3. Another important launch was VW’s Tiguan – In a segment which has always been dominated by Fortuner; it’ll be interesting to see how VW’s offering will fare. Only time’ll tell.
  4. GM’s exit (which was announced on 18th May) has already been discussed in detail. Now we can slowly see the numbers dwindling away from the above chart in coming months.
  5. Hyundai’s refreshed offerings – Grand i10 & Xcent did average. A mid-life makeover has ensured that the models continue their average volumes as last year and avoid degrowth. However, i20 & Creta have been the money-makers for both Hyundai and its dealer partners.
  6. Honda has 2 models in the Top 25 chart in May’17 – City & WRV. This signifies the importance of having refreshed/new products in the portfolio. This has also been the reason behind 13.3% YoY growth posted by the Japanese automaker.

Look at Top 25 selling models of May 2017 –

Top Selling Hatchbacks (entry & mid level) –

Top Selling Premium Hatches –

Top Selling Compact Sedans –

Top Selling Sedans –

Top Selling Compact SUVs –

Top Selling MUVs –

Top Selling SUVs –

May 2017 Car Sales – Snapshot

While the Industry was facing the heat of implementation of GST; only Toyota & VW (among the mass market brands) de-grew in May’17. Also the time couldn’t have been tougher for the luxury brands – From Demonetization to GST the ride has been very volatile for the Premium Auto Makers. May’16 also marks the exit and hence the sudden decline of the sales of General Motors (even then it posted figures more than that of Fiat!).

Export Statistics – FY17

As always, we are happy to present the most comprehensive data from the Indian Auto Industry. India has grown as a viable manufacturing hub for the Automobile OEMs and the lower costs have given the subcontinent a strategic edge. The OEMs have invested heavily in the local manufacturing facilities and Exports give them an opportunity to leverage on the Production Capacity from these plants. India had already beaten China in passenger car exports for the fiscal year 2015-16. According to numbers collated from SIAM statistics, Indian passenger car exports for FY2016 totaled to 532,053 units. This was higher than Chinese passenger car exports for the fiscal – 409,800 units – which were recorded by the China Association Of Automobile Manufacturers. The scenario was equally buoyant in FY17 and Car Exports rose upto 16% in the time period.

The rise in exports was fueled by the OEMs who were struggling in the Domestic Market and Exports was the only option for them to utilize the capacity (and hence become profitable). The Top 5 Exporters included OEMs such as Ford, Nissan & VW whose Indian sales are far from being satisfactory. However, Hyundai retained its No.1 slot and emerged to be the country’s Top Exporter in last fiscal. Find here the OEM-wise export numbers:

Notable volumes recorded by GM, Renault and Mahindra in FY17 – they have realized the benefits of having a strong export base and have taken the right steps to encash it. To our surprise, there was not a single Hyundai model in the Top 5 exported cars list (while Hyundai as an OEM was No.1!). Ecosport led the rankings and was followed by Vento. However, Beat did extremely well and jumped to the 3rd position in the rankings table. Look at the Top 30 exported cars from India:

While the exports of Cars was encouraging; 2 wheeler OEMs struggled in the previous financial year. Two wheeler exports fell by 6% in FY17 when compared to FY16. The de-growth was led by the Top 2-wheeler exporter – Bajaj Auto. Bajaj’s export volumes fell by over 16% and this came at a time where its domestic volumes was also under pressure. This would have surely hit the bottom-line of the Indian OEM and its dependence completely on bikes could be attributed as a reason. Here’s the list of the Top Two Wheeler OEMs in terms of Exports:

The OEM which grew significantly in exports was Honda – and it was led by its scooterette Dio. Also note that Dio was the only scooter in the Top 10 exported Two-wheelers (the next scooter in the rankings was TVS’s Wego and was ranked 16th!). Honda also remains India’s top scooter exporter from the country and about 36 percent of company’s overall exports are scooters! Honda also surpassed Hero’s export numbers by over 1.30 lakh units to become the third largest two-wheeler exporter from India. Hero Moto Corp exported 180,391 units in FY17.  Let’s see the Top 30 Two wheeler Export models :

TVS’s exports grew by 1.56 percent as it exported 44,572 units of scooters, over 2.99 lakh units of motorcycles and about 20,152 units of its mopeds. Overall, the company exported about 3.64 lakhs units in FY 17 as against 3.58 lakh units in FY 16. TVS currently exports to over 50 countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America!

About 12 percent of the total two-wheelers manufactured in India were exported to global markets. FY17 also saw highest ever exports of scooters at above 2.93 lakh units.

Indian Car Sales Figures – April 2017

April was a month of many surprises for the Indian Passenger Vehicle Industry – the industry surpassed the growth forecast and grew by a splendid >15% in the first month of FY18! The Industry Leader Maruti Suzuki posted a sales of over 1.44 Lakh units which was its ever highest figure! Maruti again crossed the 50% Market Share and looks even stronger with the New Dzire launch on the cards.

April is generally a dull month for the Industry, but the numbers are surely encouraging. With GST roll out nearing by; it’ll be interesting to see how the market responds in May & June. Also to note that apart from the New Dzire launch there are no big launches scheduled in the next 2 months.

A look at the model-wise Sales for Apr’17:

 SNAPSHOT:

  • Swift was reigned the No.1 Selling car in Apr’17. It outsold the leader Alto by quite a margin and grew hefty 52% over same period last year.
  • With the Gujarat Plant seems to gain pace, Baleno numbers have grown strongly in the past few months. It did a staggering >17k units in Apr’17 and has surely eased the waiting period for the model. The RS variant also looks to have added volumes to the model.
  • Hyundai i20 sold more than the recently refreshed Grand i10. It again shows how value conscious the Indian consumer is and would not shy to pay a premium for the car it loves!
  • Apart from Maruti & Hyundai; no other OEM could find a place in the TOP 10 table! Renault’s Kwid was pushed to No.11 as well.
  • 10 out of Top 15 selling cars were from Maruti Suzuki! This shows how well the Indo-Japanese company has evolved itself, just look at the cars which have topped the numbers – Swift (No.1 Hatch), Baleno (No.1 Premium Hatch), Vitara Brezza (No.1 Compact SUV), Dzire (No.1 Compact Sedan), Omni (No.1 Van), Ciaz (No.1 Sedan), Ertiga (No.1 MUV). You name a segment and you’ll find a Maruti product there.
  • Hyundai is now heavily dependent on 3 models (i20, Grand i10 & Creta). While the competition is getting tough, the performance of these 3 models will define Hyundai’s volumes for that particular month (In Apr’17, ~34k units were contributed by these 3 models). Hyundai needs a fresh model to strengthen its hold.
  • Mahindra is struggling hard to maintain its numbers. In Apr’17, Fortuner sold more than XUV500! Also the new kids (TUV & KUV) sales have dwindled over time. The perception of quality and service has surely effected the brand and it needs to do something new to bounce back. See how Mahindra’s Market Share has eroded in UV’s:
Source: Money Control
  • Honda has posted a good YoY Growth (38% to be precise) backed by the volumes from the new models (City Refresh & WRV). However, Ciaz outsold the City in Apr’17 and the fight is going to get more tougher for Honda as Ciaz moves to Nexa. WRV has garnered positive reviews for the heavy feature list it is offering at the price. However, it needs to fight the mighty Brezza & settled Ecosport for volumes.
  • Toyota continues its dream run with its blockbuster models (Innova & Fortuner). It is still a mystery on how Toyota still manages to do it (mystery can be decoded as the perception of Quality, Durability & Reliability of Toyota products with Indian buyers 🙂 )

Top 25 selling cars of Apr’17 –

Top Selling Hatchbacks (entry & mid level) –

Top Selling Premium Hatches –

Top Selling Compact Sedans –

Top Selling Sedans –

Top Selling Compact SUVs –

Top Selling MUVs –

Top Selling SUVs –

April 2017 Car Sales – Snapshot

The Indian Auto Industry registered a double digit growth in the first month of the Financial Year and was backed by Market Leader Maruti’s stellar performance. Maruti yet crossed 50% Market Share and grew over 23% when compared to the same period last year! The other Japanese Giants (Toyota, Honda & Nissan) too grew strongly with a YoY growth of 52%, 38% & 39% respectively. Mahindra & Renault had a tough time with the newcomers (KUV, Kwid) not matching previous years success run. The post-demonetization woes doesn’t seem to end for the Luxury Car makers and not a single OEM posted a positive growth!