Indian Car Sales Figures – June 2017

While the entire country was awaiting the biggest tax reform of the century; the Indian Auto Industry had to brace itself for yet another jittery month. The anticipation of price reduction kept many prospective customers at bay and even the OEMs/dealers weren’t ready to endure the loss for their stocks post price reduction (due to GST). Anyhow the retails numbers were much better than the numbers posted here (which is the dealer offtake data). The OEMs flooded the market with discounts and pull crowds into their respective showrooms. Even the automobile dealers were under pressure to reduce their respective stocks before GST implementation. The Industry in overall has gone through various challenges and the varying regulations have kept the OEMs on their backfoot. This led to the worst YoY degrowth Toyota has faced ever (YoY degrowth was over 85% and it ranked 10th in the list!). The Indian Auto Industry also de-grew over 11% YoY in June’17. The only silver lining is that all models have seen a significant price reduction after GST and will surely revive the demand – We expect the Industry to bounce back to double digit growth from July’17 onwards. Let’s look at the modelwise analysis here:

Highlights:

  • Even with the challenges revolving around GST, Maruti could post a positive growth. However, its bestsellers (Dzire, Swift & WagonR) couldn’t garner the second spot and lost it to Grand i10. Also the Nexa channel offerings – SCross & Ignis looks to be under pressure as the sales dwindle to all time low.
  • Hyundai’s star performer was again the Elite i20. It ranked No.1 in the Premium hatch category and dethroned Baleno from the top slot. Creta sales however was below par as the price reduction sought in SUV category was very high.
  • Honda is on a roll this year. The New City and the recently launched WRV has clearly revived the OEMs performance. WRV was able to overtake Ecosport’s numbers and has positioned itself strongly in the Compact SUV space. The strong feature list (Sunroof, Digipad & Cruise Control) in the WRV has made it a very attractive buy and the higher ground clearance has allowed to garner sales in upcountry markets as well. However, it seems to have cannibalized Jazz’s numbers to an extent – Jazz’s volumes have dropped below 1,500 units for the first time in past 15 months! Even the VW Polo sales were higher than Jazz in June’17.
  • Toyota is clearly disappointed with the way Indian Government has been changing the policy structure. Earlier the NGT ban on diesel vehicles, then followed by Demonetization and finally the GST. Because of this, Toyota had to bear tremendous losses and June’17 was a testament for it. The OEM clearly stopped its dispatches in June as the price decrease expected on its portfolio of products was very high (Fortuner prices were slashed by over 2 lakhs in July’17!).
  • While Renault had a blockbuster FY17; this year is full of challenges for the French automaker. Its dependence on a single model is costing it high and it seems to struggle without new launches. Any drop in Kwid sales impacts the OEM heavily and it isn’t able to significantly revive Duster’s sales (even post the launch of Petrol/CVT variant).
  • Mahindra yet again survives with the performance of its old warhorses (Bolero & Scorpio). With muti million dollar investment in new product development (Xylo, Quanto, TUV300, KUV100), it had expected to retain its dominance in UV segment. However, the poor sales figures of these models and stiff competition from the biggies like Maruti (Brezza) & Hyundai (Creta) has put the Indian OEM on its backfoot.

Look at Top 25 selling models of June 2017 –

Top Selling Hatchbacks (entry & mid level) –

Top Selling Premium Hatches –

Top Selling Compact Sedans –

Top Selling Sedans –

Top Selling Compact SUVs –

 

Top Selling MUVs –

Top Selling SUVs –

Indian Car Sales Figures – May 2017

‘I QUIT’ – these are the hardest words for anyone to utter. Generally an employee would quit an organization if he/she us not happy with the culture the company offers or if the growth opportunities are not ample or the remuneration is not adequate. Though we can cite many other reasons; these three looked suitable for the case presented here (General Motors exit from Indian market) –

  • Culture – While, Indian Government has promised a thriving environment with the promise of ‘Make in India’, tax-free zones, etc the policies have never been stable or OEM-friendly. Firstly acquiring land for setting up plant can have multiple hassles (or term it government approvals, land acquisition troubles, etc), policy changes have been pretty frequent as well. OEMs were taken by shock when NGT initiated Diesel-vehicle ban was temporarily imposed by Supreme Court; also sudden transition from BS3 to BS4 emission norms for all category of vehicles was threatening to 2-wheeler and commercial vehicle manufacturers. Even the home-grown Tata had gone through some of the troubles mentioned here. Recent news of jumping to BS6 norms by 2020 and all-electric vehicles by 2030 has made all OEMs wary about the amount of investments that’ll have to be made to survive in the Indian market.
  • Growth Opportunities – India has been an extremely competitive market where the top 4 players hold over 75% of market share. GM has struggled in its over 20 years of existence in the subcontinent. It played several bets (and with several brands) – initially with Opel, then Daewoo inspired models (say the matiz aka spark), then the Chevrolet and finally SAIC inspired models (Enjoy, Sail Twins). Also they expanded their network aggressively between 2011-15 pushed them harder to look into newer models to better the network profitability and sales volumes. However, the bets failed every single time! The reason the strategy failed – It was overly controlled by the Headquarters (Detroit). While Indian market had been extremely dynamic from beginning; GM lacked the leadership who could take progressive steps for the OEM here. They were busy doing the postmortem after every failure. The Karl Slym era was though extremely promising (during which the bestsellers touched the subcontinent – Beat & Cruze). But, even Karl left the path in between.
  • Remuneration – India has pre-dominantly been a hatchback market, which means lower margins for the OEMs and high initial investments (as the MNCs do not have the expertise in small cars). The amount of sales and margins the Global biggies make in the bigger markets is insane – Ex: Chevy sold 5,74,876 units of its best seller Silverado (stands No.2 in the best selling cars/trucks for US market) in 2016, which converts to 47,906 units/mth. The average price of this model is $50,385 (>Rs.32 Lakhs). When you compare this with the stats of its Indian sales, the numbers are extremely meager. Hence justifying the investment becomes all more difficult here. The same concern is troubling all other biggies (say VW, Toyota, Ford, etc). Look at the excerpt from ET

However, we believe GM has made an unforgivable mistake. Exiting Indian market at this stage has ensured that it wont be able to re-enter the Indian market (no more bets please!) and also the brand has taken an irrevocable downfall. GM forgot that it needed only 1 good product to gain its hold in the market (like what Duster/Kwid had done to Renault, Innova to Toyota, etc). It should have also learnt from the likes of Tata Motors which had struggled during the years and is now a formidable challenger to the No.4 slot. But it is both GM’s and Indian Consumers (who had bought Chevy products over the years) loss! It is also unfortunate to see that brands such as Peugeot, Kia are entering (or re-entering Peugeot’s case) and GM is giving up on the market.

Coming to May’17 business, it was a tough month for OEMs as consumers were confused to wait for clarity on GST implications and finalize their purchase. Also dealer fraternity were wary on the effect GST would have on the cars that were shipped from OEM to their stockyards. However, the Industry stood well and posted double digit growth. Good Monsoon forecast has positively supported consumer sentiments as well. While majority of the OEMs had a positive YoY growth; the likes of VW & Toyota experienced a fall in overall sales when compared to the same period last year. Let’s look at the modelwise analysis here:

Highlights:

  1. Nexa Channel (with S-Cross, Baleno, Ignis & Ciaz) posted a sales of 26,120 units! If we consider it as a different channel/brand than Maruti; it’ll emerge to be the No.3 player in the Indian market. Don’t be surprised to see it in the No.2 slot if the momentum continues in the coming times.
  2. Dzire launch was also in the news – The volume cruncher is now bigger and better! Huge aspirations now on the model and we are sure that it’ll deliver.
  3. Another important launch was VW’s Tiguan – In a segment which has always been dominated by Fortuner; it’ll be interesting to see how VW’s offering will fare. Only time’ll tell.
  4. GM’s exit (which was announced on 18th May) has already been discussed in detail. Now we can slowly see the numbers dwindling away from the above chart in coming months.
  5. Hyundai’s refreshed offerings – Grand i10 & Xcent did average. A mid-life makeover has ensured that the models continue their average volumes as last year and avoid degrowth. However, i20 & Creta have been the money-makers for both Hyundai and its dealer partners.
  6. Honda has 2 models in the Top 25 chart in May’17 – City & WRV. This signifies the importance of having refreshed/new products in the portfolio. This has also been the reason behind 13.3% YoY growth posted by the Japanese automaker.

Look at Top 25 selling models of May 2017 –

Top Selling Hatchbacks (entry & mid level) –

Top Selling Premium Hatches –

Top Selling Compact Sedans –

Top Selling Sedans –

Top Selling Compact SUVs –

Top Selling MUVs –

Top Selling SUVs –

May 2017 Car Sales – Snapshot

While the Industry was facing the heat of implementation of GST; only Toyota & VW (among the mass market brands) de-grew in May’17. Also the time couldn’t have been tougher for the luxury brands – From Demonetization to GST the ride has been very volatile for the Premium Auto Makers. May’16 also marks the exit and hence the sudden decline of the sales of General Motors (even then it posted figures more than that of Fiat!).

Indian Car Sales Figures – April 2017

April was a month of many surprises for the Indian Passenger Vehicle Industry – the industry surpassed the growth forecast and grew by a splendid >15% in the first month of FY18! The Industry Leader Maruti Suzuki posted a sales of over 1.44 Lakh units which was its ever highest figure! Maruti again crossed the 50% Market Share and looks even stronger with the New Dzire launch on the cards.

April is generally a dull month for the Industry, but the numbers are surely encouraging. With GST roll out nearing by; it’ll be interesting to see how the market responds in May & June. Also to note that apart from the New Dzire launch there are no big launches scheduled in the next 2 months.

A look at the model-wise Sales for Apr’17:

 SNAPSHOT:

  • Swift was reigned the No.1 Selling car in Apr’17. It outsold the leader Alto by quite a margin and grew hefty 52% over same period last year.
  • With the Gujarat Plant seems to gain pace, Baleno numbers have grown strongly in the past few months. It did a staggering >17k units in Apr’17 and has surely eased the waiting period for the model. The RS variant also looks to have added volumes to the model.
  • Hyundai i20 sold more than the recently refreshed Grand i10. It again shows how value conscious the Indian consumer is and would not shy to pay a premium for the car it loves!
  • Apart from Maruti & Hyundai; no other OEM could find a place in the TOP 10 table! Renault’s Kwid was pushed to No.11 as well.
  • 10 out of Top 15 selling cars were from Maruti Suzuki! This shows how well the Indo-Japanese company has evolved itself, just look at the cars which have topped the numbers – Swift (No.1 Hatch), Baleno (No.1 Premium Hatch), Vitara Brezza (No.1 Compact SUV), Dzire (No.1 Compact Sedan), Omni (No.1 Van), Ciaz (No.1 Sedan), Ertiga (No.1 MUV). You name a segment and you’ll find a Maruti product there.
  • Hyundai is now heavily dependent on 3 models (i20, Grand i10 & Creta). While the competition is getting tough, the performance of these 3 models will define Hyundai’s volumes for that particular month (In Apr’17, ~34k units were contributed by these 3 models). Hyundai needs a fresh model to strengthen its hold.
  • Mahindra is struggling hard to maintain its numbers. In Apr’17, Fortuner sold more than XUV500! Also the new kids (TUV & KUV) sales have dwindled over time. The perception of quality and service has surely effected the brand and it needs to do something new to bounce back. See how Mahindra’s Market Share has eroded in UV’s:
Source: Money Control
  • Honda has posted a good YoY Growth (38% to be precise) backed by the volumes from the new models (City Refresh & WRV). However, Ciaz outsold the City in Apr’17 and the fight is going to get more tougher for Honda as Ciaz moves to Nexa. WRV has garnered positive reviews for the heavy feature list it is offering at the price. However, it needs to fight the mighty Brezza & settled Ecosport for volumes.
  • Toyota continues its dream run with its blockbuster models (Innova & Fortuner). It is still a mystery on how Toyota still manages to do it (mystery can be decoded as the perception of Quality, Durability & Reliability of Toyota products with Indian buyers 🙂 )

Top 25 selling cars of Apr’17 –

Top Selling Hatchbacks (entry & mid level) –

Top Selling Premium Hatches –

Top Selling Compact Sedans –

Top Selling Sedans –

Top Selling Compact SUVs –

Top Selling MUVs –

Top Selling SUVs –

April 2017 Car Sales – Snapshot

The Indian Auto Industry registered a double digit growth in the first month of the Financial Year and was backed by Market Leader Maruti’s stellar performance. Maruti yet crossed 50% Market Share and grew over 23% when compared to the same period last year! The other Japanese Giants (Toyota, Honda & Nissan) too grew strongly with a YoY growth of 52%, 38% & 39% respectively. Mahindra & Renault had a tough time with the newcomers (KUV, Kwid) not matching previous years success run. The post-demonetization woes doesn’t seem to end for the Luxury Car makers and not a single OEM posted a positive growth!

Passenger Vehicle Sales Rank – FY17

Model-wise Sales Rank for the cumulative figures of Apr’16-Mar’17 (FY17) –

SNAPSHOT –

  • 126 Brands from 17 OEMs reported sales in the previous financial year! The options are plenty in every segment and the competition was never so fierce.
  • Maruti dominates the roost and has 7 out top 10 models from its stable. Hyundai stands second and has 2 models in the Top 10 list. The only other manufacturer in the Top 10 is Renault (all thanks to Kwid).
  • India is slowly emerging to be a value conscious market – that is how Ford’s Mustang sold thrice the numbers that of Mahindra’s Vibe!
  • The overall growth for passenger cars in India was 9% and this year we surpassed Germany as the Fourth biggest Passenger Car market in the world. India is now the focus market for all OEMs – expect Kia & Peugeot to set up their shops pretty soon.

Cars Export Statistics – India – FY17

Near to 38 Lakh cars were manufactured in India in the previous Financial Year (Apr’16-Mar’17). And out of this, over Seven and half lakh cars were exported to different parts of the world. This means that over 20% of the production output is utilized in Exports – and hence the tag of ‘Global Manufacturing Hub’ holds true to India. Just to highlight the scale of Exports from India (>7.5 lakh units) – India exported more cars than the passenger car sales in countries like Argentina* (>6.9 lakh units), Belgium* (>6 lakh units), South Africa* (>5.3 lakh units), etc. The export numbers grew over 16% in FY17 when compared FY16. It was fueled by exponential increase in exports by OEMs such as Ford, GM, Renault & Mahindra. Let us look at the OEM-wise export volumes –

  • Similar to Domestic sales; the exports was dominated by the Top 3 players and they together contribute ~60% of the export volumes.
  • However, Hyundai is undoubtedly the No.1 Exporter of Cars in India. It has consistently utilized India to cater markets like Europe, Middle East and Africa. Just to highlight the reach of its export base – made in India Creta is currently being exported to 92 countries across the world!
  • Ford India is at the tail of Hyundai and with the current pace is all set to dethrone Hyundai as sub-continent’s biggest exporter! Ford export numbers grew to 43% in comparison to last year and is just 5k units short than that of Hyundai’s. Interestingly, the company’s exports were much more than what it sold in the domestic market – 91,405 units.
  • Maruti seems to be concentrating on the Domestic Market and the exports haven’t grown as expected. Though the models which made their global debut in India (such as Baleno) is being exported to other markets, the overall export numbers have not been quite significant. In FY17, Maruti’s export numbers was 1,22,039 units in comparison to Domestic Sales of 14,43,641 units.
  • GM has made commendable inroads in terms of Exports and is currently country’s 6th Biggest exporter. The focus of the American manufacturer has come in tough times where it finding immensely difficult to utilize its production prowess to cater to the local market. GM India currently exports the left hand drive Beat to countries including Mexico, Chile, Peru, Central American and Caribbean Countries (CAC), Uruguay and Argentina.

Exports from India have grew at at YoY pace of >16% when compared to YoY Domestic Sales Growth of >9%. It clearly signifies that the Made-in-India products are now able to clear global standards and our manufacturing prowess will be a boost to the sector. No wonder Global Products Design & Engineering is currently happening in India and more world-class products will be launched in the domestic market in coming future. This is indeed a positive sign for the Industry and we expect the export volumes to cross 10 Lakh units per annum within next 2 years!

*Domestic Sales for Calendar Year 2016 (Jan-Dec)

Indian Car Sales Figures – March 2017

March is generally a good month for Auto manufacturers as a lot of customers are scheduling their purchase considering the depreciation benefit. The buying is also preponed to March with the contemplation of Price Hike in April. The OEMs also offer aggressive discounts in March as it marks the end of the Financial Year and the OEMs performance for the Fiscal is also defined by March’s performance. Also to be considered here is that the consumers get clarity in terms of the Annual Budget and hence if any policy changes are there or not.

Mar’17 was no different – Indian Auto Industry grew YoY by 9% and it also reported the highest sales figures ever in a Financial Year (Apr’16-Mar’17). India saw sales of over 30 lakh units for the first time and also saw the highest growth in past 7 years! It also became the third fastest growing market in the world. The growth as usual was fueled by new launches. As many as 42 new models (including facelift and refreshes) were launched in past 15 months. As forecasted earlier by us, the Industry is surely in a growth trajectory and is poised for higher volumes in the coming year.  Let’s look at the Industry trend of past 7 years –

Source: ET

A look at the model-wise Sales for Mar’17:

SNAPSHOT:

  • It was a benchmark year for Maruti  – the OEM which known globally as a small-car maker and attributed its success with its strong portfolio of entry level hatches ; has now entrenched itself as a market leader in almost every segment! The strategy of bringing a capable model in every segment played off well with Maruti Suzuki India and the Nexa Channel too has reaped excellent results.
Source: ET
  • Mar’17 was an interesting month for Maruti – Baleno registered its all time highest sales and sold over 16k units! It emerged to become India’s second best selling car. Surprisingly no drop was seen in Swift’s sales as well (and hence no cannibalization evident). Also the photos of New Swift & Dzire indicate that the launch of refreshed models is near.
  • Ciaz saw a dip in sales (YoY) – The launch of New City has surely attributed and the transition from Maruti Channel to Nexa Channel could be the reason as well. While Ciaz’s stronghold was in Diesel segment – it is going to take a hit with the withdrawal of FAME scheme (and thus Diesel Ciaz prices are bound to increase).
  • Hyundai continues to encash Indians love for SUVs – sold the ever-highest numbers of Creta in Mar’17. Over 10k units were shipped from Hyundai’s manufacturing facility to its dealer partners. This segment (Rs.12 L – 20L SUV) was tapped earlier by Mahindra with XUV; however Hyundai topped Mahindra in its game and has achieved the impossible.
  • M&M was one of fewest OEMs to see a YoY degrowth in Mar’17. The Indian UV major is seeing major challenges in its home turf. The new models haven’t performed as per expectation and it is still dependent on its old warhorses (Bolero & Scorpio).  It is going to be a tough year ahead if the company isn’t able to bring exciting models in this fiscal.
  • Honda grew for the second consecutive month and was mainly supported by City & W-RV. The New City seems to have got tremendous response from the market and has helped the Japanese OEM to dethrone Ciaz from the top slot. WRV too joined the party and has done decent 3,833 units in its first month – the coming months will the real test for the touted Compact SUV.
  • The Product Offensive strategy of Tata Motors has surely helped and has made the Indian OEM to aim for the 3rd spot (by 2019). Happy with Tiago’s tremendous response, Tata launched its sedan version and has priced it well. Around 3011 Tigor’s were shipped in the first month itself.
  • We have no clue with what’s happening with the brand Chevy in India. Even with American Muscle and Breakthrough models (like Beat, Cruze etc) the OEM has been extremely lethargic in its approach and is slowly losing its ground. With the BS-3 ban coming to affect – its rural workhorse Tavera is going to rest now. Also the recent speculations of GM moving out of India has shocked us (News Link).

Top 20 selling cars of Mar’17 –

Top Selling Hatchbacks (entry & mid level) –

Top Selling Premium Hatches –

Top Selling Compact Sedans –

Top Selling Sedans –

Top Selling Compact SUVs –

Top Selling MUVs –

Top Selling SUVs –