‘Tried & Tested’ – the most important attribute affecting the purchase decision of Indian consumer. Don’t believe me? – have you ever seen the santros, the indicas, the altos and the boleros proudly plying on Indian roads and with increased numbers everytime you step on road. Maruti 800 still is sought after by many Indian homes and we do not see any automobile replacing its legacy.
Product Life Cycle defines that at a certain age the product grows to its peak, later it reaches saturation level and after some time it slowly phases out of the market. When you analyse this theory in the Indian automotive industry, you surely would be amazed by the uniqueness – consider Mahindras ‘Bolero’ which was launched over 12 years back still manages to easily outperform its young competitors. The story ain’t very different in case of Maruti’s Alto as well – launched way back in 2000 and emerges as the world’s best selling car in 2011!
I have seen a person purchase a Hyundai Santro 3 times in his life! Every time he liquidates his old Santro – no other brand makes space in his consideration set else than a Santro again. And this ain’t a special case – many Indian households have the same story.
But anythings changed recently? With over 30 new launches in past 2 years and many international OEMs jumping the bandwagon – has given a plethora of choices to the Indian consumer. Gone are the days where we had only padmini’s, 800’s or amby’s available in the kitty. You and me are now spoilt for choices – and boy we love new cars! The younger generation is demanding freshness and novelty – this would spark and make the game more competitive. Can this change the nature of the Indian automotive scenario? – I say YES.
Ever wondered on the investment required to open a full fledged dealership (3S)? In a current scenario and considering the OEM quality benchmark the investment can soar upto minimum Rs. 8-10 crores. And the amount of time taken to establish a greenfield dealership could be anywhere between 8 to 12 months. All this investment has now taken a very strategic turn. OEMs need to be much industrious in enabling the profitability of its channel partners and expand productively. With ever increasing competition and razor thin margins, even Auto dealers are becoming much more choosy and wary before zeroing down on the investment – this makes a whole lot difficult for the new OEM entrants to exponentially expand in the market.
A look on how the OEM volumes co-relate to their Channel numbers –
Note: Number of dealers indicate independent dealers and not sales/service points.
In the above data it could be easily implied that the sale of a dealer is directly proportionate to its dealer network. VW & Toyota – It is imperative for you guys to understand that to emerge as a no.1 OEM, you need to hit this nail right on its head.
Channel expansion is the key – with rural markets growing then ever and less susceptible to economic vulnerability – Reaching Out will decide the fate of these OEMs.
|April 2012 Sales Figures – Pan India|
1)”When Maruti sneezes, the auto industry catches cold” – the statement stands true in any season! Maruti’s figures were the true reflection of the industry’s performance for April 2012. The Indian Auto Industry degrew by over 22%(Month-on-Month) whereas Maruti has de-grown by 20%. The reason still remains Maruti’s dominant market share and sheer size of its numbers (Maruti’s volume was an average 83000/mth in F12!).
A list of Top 20 Brands of the month –
The world’s fastest growing automobile market was now under analysts scanner for its sheer volatility. Demand for cars fell for the first time in three years last July and slumped by the most in over a decade in October. SIAM which had projected a growth of over 20% had to instantly lower its projections. The Industry’s lackluster performance reflected in the overall performance of the country. In a recent report, S&P cut its outlook on India’s BBB- rating to negative from stable. This is surely not a good news for the Indian Industry in overall.
The low-end hatchbacks were the ones to take the beating in FY12. For perhaps the first time in many years, small cars reported a decline in growth in 2011-12 (FY12), largely on account of Maruti Alto’s decline. Now, SIAM has forecast 10-12 percent growth in overall passenger cars for this fiscal, but this number may be lower if small car growth is again hindered. SIAM data showed that the mini car segment – which comprises Maruti 800, Alto, A-Star, and WagonR, the Chevy Spark and Hyundai’s Santro and Eon – declined by about 7 percent to 6,42,009 units (6,90,812 units) last fiscal. Sales of the Alto, the single largest selling car in India, had fallen by about 11 percent between April and February 2012.
Overall Highlights –
- * Car sales in India rose just 2.2 percent in FY2012
- * Sales of motorcycles rose 12 percent in the previous fiscal year to 10.1 million vehicles ( 10,096,062 units).
- * Scooter sales shot up 24.5 per cent, to 2,562,841 units.
- * Total two-wheeler sales were 13,435,769 units in 2011-12 against 11,768,910 units in 2010-11, up 14.2 per cent.
- * Commercial vehicles, Siam said total sales in FY12 were 809,532 units, up 18.2 per cent.
- * Three-wheeler segment, that saw a decline of 2.4 per cent at 513,251 vehicles in FY12.
- # SIAM has projected passenger car sales growth at 10-12 per cent in 2012-13.
- # Sales of trucks and buses, a key indicator of economic activity, rose 18.2 percent in 2011/12 and are seen growing 9 to 11 per cent in this fiscal year.
- # SIAM has pegged the motorcycle segment to grow 10-12 per cent in FY13 and scooters by 15-17 percent. Two wheeler segment is expected to have a growth of around 14-15%.
- # Commercial Vehicles is projected to grow by nine to 11 per cent in FY13.
- # SIAM has also projected five to seven per cent growth for Three Wheelers.
|Source – Business Standard|
|Sales Comparison & YoY analysis of Indian 2 Wheeler Manufacturers for Mar’12|
Automobile sales in March 2012 ended on a high note with a few two wheeler OEMs hitting all-time high sales volumes. Hero Moto Corp achieved its highest volume of 528290 numbers in the month. It also crossed the 60 Lakh sales volume for the first time in its history in this financial year (F12).
Although the demand has been considerably high throughout the year, a certain amount of moderation is seen in the sector. However, the highlights of the month were –
1> Hero MotoCorp’s sales were up 2.41% YoY at 528,290 units
2> Segment-wise Bajaj sold 300,848 units of motorcycles in Mar’12, up 10 per cent from 274,392 sold in the corresponding period of last year. History created – Pulsar cumulative sales exceeded 5 million units since launch.
3> Honda reported 49.68 per cent jump in its total sales for March at 2,20,487 units compared to 1,47,301 units in the same month of 2011.
a) company reported an increase of 69.69 per cent in scooter sales to 1,38,134 units last month from 81,402 units a year ago during the same month
b) motorcycle sales went up by 24.97 per cent to 82,353 units as against 65,899 units in March’11.
4> Yamaha reported a 14 per cent increase in its total sales at 41,886 units in March 2012.
5> TVS Motor’s two-wheeler sales witnessed a 3.48 per cent decline at 1,80,274 units from 1,86,781 units in the same month last year.
6> Suzuki Motorcycle India reported a 28.50 per cent growth in March’12 sales at 35,158 units.
Domestic Sales Figure of these OEMs –
|Source – ET|
India has become important to the whole world and this is becoming like an export hub for specially small cars and components globally. Never before Auto majors have launched cars specifically for Indian consumers but now they appear to be giving immense importance to Indian market. The export volumes for the last four years, too, suggest a strong correlation with domestic demand. In years, when the domestic market has been sluggish, auto makers have been aggressive on exports and vice versa.
A look on the export scenario for March 2012 –
The export volume of Hyundai & Ford speaks for itself – around 34% and 26% of overall volumes of Hyundai & Ford were exports!!! While it is clear that the Indian-origin OEMs were busy satisfying the domestic demand.
No wonder why Chennai is home to major Auto Makers. Its proximity to Ennore port makes it extremely viable to set up base there. To emphasize on the scale of exports currently happening through Chennai –
- 1. Toyota started the export of its Etios & Liva from April’12 with the first batch of 247 units shipped on April 4 from Ennore. Toyota aims to export 20000 cars this year.
- 2. Nissan India has exported 85,000 cars till date, manufactured at its Oragadam facility and posted a record export of 14,403 units in January 2012. The company is planning to increase the volume of exports in 2012 and targets car exports worth Rs. 500 crore approximately.
- 3. Exports volume was led by the local arms of global car makers such as Hyundai, Nissan Motor Co. Ltd and Ford Motor Co., all of which have identified India as an export hub for small cars and have constantly shipped models from their factories in India
|March 2012 Sales Figures – Pan India|
The investments are upto a tune of over 40000 crores in the next 4 years. The list is never-ending and looks like –
The plans is to enhance the production capacity to the level of 40 Lakh passenger vehicles. Setting up multiple manufacturing bases is also a part of the location strategy, where the OEM is not completely dependent in terms of manpower/taxes/proximity. The recent labor turmoil in Maruti had literally shut down its overall operations and the damages stood irreplaceable. Even when Maharashtra Govt. lifted its tax benefit, companies such as M&M, VW started looking out for other states as investment options. Gujarat, however due to its Investment friendly policies and low corruption emerged as the darling of OEM’s. It would not be an exaggeration to term Tata’s shifting its Nano plant to Sanand in an OVERNIGHT. Now companies such as Maruti, Peugeot, Hyundai, Renault/Ford have all approached the state for their Expansion drive.
A look at how the demographics seems like –
Image Source:Business Today