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After the 2007 sub-prime crisis, demand for CV plunged and de-growth continued till 2009. During tough financial times, several Governments had put monetary and fiscal stimulus in place (Keynesian Economic Theory) and market demand regained, and by 2011 it was again back to the 2007 level. 2011 onwards global demand had gained traction and is growing at a steady pace now.
The USA is by far the biggest CV market. Global CV growth is always in line with the US market growth trajectory, thanks to American’s love for pick-up (Light commercial vehicles).
However, global growth hasn’t been homogenous, as several countries have gone through strained financial condition in last 10 years, coupled with tepid demand owing to inherent cyclical nature of CV industry. India too is case in point, by 2011 India reached #4 rank but then slipped to #6, followed by shallow recovery.
Top 30 Country-Market of 2017
Data Source : OICA CV sales data (Commercial vehicles include light commercial vehicles, heavy trucks, coaches and buses)
The USA has lion’s share in the global market
Top 30 countries account for 95% of global CV sales
Out of top 30 countries, almost 11 have witnessed ‘0’ or negative growth in last 10 years due to stagnation or declining economic activities in respective countries
High Growth Region (2007-2017)
These are the countries having substantial base year market size and sustained growth rate of 5% and above over a decade
These are the key markets and CV OEM need to watch out these countries as their future growth engine
Economic recovery in Brazil & Russia, which suffered economic recession in recent past, now have high chances of better growth in coming years as oil and commodity prices have started hardening
Declining Major Markets (2007-2017)
Crude Oil price crash of 2015 was a major setback for Russia and Saudi Arabia and the reason for declining CV market
Spanish and Italian market witnessed massive decline at the height of European Sovereign Debt crisis around the year 2012, since then both are on recovery path
In last 4 years Japanese market growth rate has been almost flat, it is more like a saturated market now
Continent
Canada and the USA are growing at healthy rate in line with their economic growth trajectory
After 2010, Asian market growth has remained largely flat
Overall European market has contracted in last decade
North America
Africa
Central & South America
Asia
Europe
