Financial Year 2012 was a landmark year – both in a positive and negative manner. It paved way for many breakthrough launches – saw the launch of segment defining Fluidic Verna, excellent value for money XUV 500, Hyundai’s entry level offering Eon and many more. It also displayed its sudden love for MPV/MUVs in the Auto Expo – Maruti’s Ertiga, Chevrolet’s Enjoy and Nissan’s Evalia were the most sought after showcase at the expo. We were now exposed to the hard truth as well – that how labour intensive the auto industry is… A labor strike can strike at Maruti shook the entire Auto Industry. The aftermath took its toll on the overall numbers. This was further catalyzed by inflation, consistent fuel hikes and rising auto interest rates. The world’s fastest growing automobile market was now under analysts scanner for its sheer volatility. Demand for cars fell for the first time in three years last July and slumped by the most in over a decade in October. SIAM which had projected a growth of over 20% had to instantly lower its projections. The Industry’s lackluster performance reflected in the overall performance of the country. In a recent report, S&P cut its outlook on India’s BBB- rating to negative from stable. This is surely not a good news for the Indian Industry in overall. The low-end hatchbacks were the ones to take the beating in FY12. For perhaps the first time in many years, small cars reported a decline in growth in 2011-12 (FY12), largely on account of Maruti Alto’s decline. Now, SIAM has forecast 10-12 percent growth in overall passenger cars for this fiscal, but this number may be lower if small car growth is again hindered. SIAM data showed that the mini car segment – which comprises Maruti 800, Alto, A-Star, and WagonR, the Chevy Spark and Hyundai’s Santro and Eon – declined by about 7 percent to 6,42,009 units (6,90,812 units) last fiscal. Sales of the Alto, the single largest selling car in India, had fallen by about 11 percent between April and February 2012.
Also, for the first-time ever, bigger diesel cars – the SUVs – are selling more and there is no slowdown in ‘dieselisation’. India’s largest automaker, Maruti Suzuki, expects car sales to increase by 10 per cent in the fiscal year beginning in April led by diesel models. Diesel car sales are expected to rise by 150,000 in 2012-13 while sale of petrol cars fall by 50,000, said the company.
Overall Highlights –
* Car sales in India rose just 2.2 percent in FY2012
* Sales of motorcycles rose 12 percent in the previous fiscal year to 10.1 million vehicles ( 10,096,062 units).
* Scooter sales shot up 24.5 per cent, to 2,562,841 units.
* Total two-wheeler sales were 13,435,769 units in 2011-12 against 11,768,910 units in 2010-11, up 14.2 per cent.
* Commercial vehicles, Siam said total sales in FY12 were 809,532 units, up 18.2 per cent.
* Three-wheeler segment, that saw a decline of 2.4 per cent at 513,251 vehicles in FY12.
Projections for FY2013 –
# SIAM has projected passenger car sales growth at 10-12 per cent in 2012-13.
# Sales of trucks and buses, a key indicator of economic activity, rose 18.2 percent in 2011/12 and are seen growing 9 to 11 per cent in this fiscal year.
# SIAM has pegged the motorcycle segment to grow 10-12 per cent in FY13 and scooters by 15-17 percent. Two wheeler segment is expected to have a growth of around 14-15%.
# Commercial Vehicles is projected to grow by nine to 11 per cent in FY13.
# SIAM has also projected five to seven per cent growth for Three Wheelers.
Will 2012-13 ‘change the game’ and put Indian Automobile Industry back on track? Past 5 months sale has been the testimony of the auto industry’s revival. And with specialty launches like Ertiga, Duster, Sail, Ecosport, Compact Xylo under pipeline; we’re optimistic and confident on our projections – Team Punditz.