Comprehensive FY19 Sales Analysis – Passenger Vehicles
At the end of financial year 2018-19 (FY19); we thought of deeply analyzing the Indian Automotive scene and assess the segment-wise performance of the offerings in the Indian market. FY19 was an extremely tough year for the Auto Industry and it grew a feeble 2.7% YoY in this fiscal year v/s FY18. Majority of the OEMs reported a negative growth and increased discount outflow hampered their bottomlines even more badly. Similar condition seen at the channel partners end as well where they carried an all time high stock with mounting expenses. The scenario doesn’t look much better this year too where SIAM has projected a single digit growth forecast (3% to 5%) for FY20 owing to rise in commodity price, election, below normal monsoon, BS 6 norms and fluctuating interest rates. However the influx of new OEMs (Kia/MG) in this FY could give some required boost to renew the consumer interest and catapult the growth levels as well.
Let’s look at the modelwise performance (FY19 v/s FY18) –
So you may be thinking which segments actually in previous Financial Year? We shall try and answer the question with the mentioned stats –
Apart from Alto; all other models reported heavy fall in volumes. The overall segment grew a phenomenal -15% in FY19 v/s FY18
Nano and Eon also saw their exit from the Indian market this year. The Industry has gone through a major transitional phase and the Indian Market which was once considered a hatchback dominated market is slowly upgrading to other segments.
We doubt if any OEM shall even try to launch a new model in this segment. In long run, Alto shall be the only contender here! Hope, Renault could work some magic on refreshing the Kwid and give it a fresh lease of life to rightfully compete with Alto.
The segment saw a positive growth of 6% owing to launch of new model (Santro) and refreshed avatars of Swift, Wagon-R. However; the point to note is that out of 14 offerings on sale in the segment in FY19; 9 models reported a decline in sales! It again came as a tricky segment for the OEMs and apart from few established marques; no other models is faring well.
Santro too was expected to sell much better; but the model failed to meet the expectations. Even; the late launch of refreshed Wagon-R resulted in decline of volumes for the model.
Baleno & i20 have been doing excellent in the segment and both have continuously listed themselves in the Top 10 selling cars this year.
Baleno has been giving tough competition to its sibling Swift and the volume difference between them was a mere ~11k units in this FY. Seeing the trend; we anticipate Baleno to outsell Swift in FY20!
Freestyle gave Ford the required volume boost in the absence of Figo. It was successful to overtake both Polo & Jazz in terms of FY19 volumes basis aggressive pricing and cross-avatar.
Both Polo & Jazz struggled in FY19. Jazz volumes almost halved in FY19 when compared to FY18!
Amaze proved be a savior for both Honda and Compact Sedan segment in FY19! The model was one of the most successful launches of previous FY and in a way revived the segment. Compact Sedan sales shot up 13% and Amaze was single handedly responsible for the double digit growth!
Apart from Dzire & Amaze; all models reported a decline in volumes. Compact Sedans have always been compromised models (elevated hatchbacks) to fall under the sub-4m category. The consumers are not particularly happy with the compromise and has reflected in the sales of the offerings in the segment.
The segment reported a double digit de-growth in FY19 and apart from Verna all other models saw a decline in the sales.
Toyota entered the segment after a lot of anticipation with the Yaris. However; even Toyota failed miserably to make its presence felt in the segment and now the competition lies between Ciaz, City & Verna only!
‘A dying segment’ – would be the apt words to describe the volumes here. However; Honda swam against the tide and launched a model in the segment this financial year. And the result was surprisingly good – Civic’s single month’s sales was almost twice of Elantra’s volumes for the entire FY!
Will be interesting to see if Civic could woo the buyers continuously and help the segment stay afloat. All other models in the segment have been struggling to garner a sale of even >300 units/mth! Even adding Civic’s volumes; the segment degrew -7% in FY19 v/s FY18.
We have termed these models as luxury sedans as they cost almost similar to the Luxury OEM offerings! However; the segment is losing its sheen and the sales of these models are even lower than the luxury OEM models sales.
The segment grew a positive 6% in FY19 v/s FY19. Brezza volumes have been a matter of envy and all OEMs are rushing to grab a pie in the segment. Mahindra launched the XUV300 & now Hyundai is planning to place its ‘Venue’ in the segment.
WRV & TUV300 lost heavily and reported a degrowth of -31% & -33% respectively. It clearly highlights that the Indian consumers are extremely demanding and shall not allow any compromises in the vehicle they chose!
Mid SUV has caught the fancy of new OEMs primarily due to the sudden shift of consumers preference towards bigger SUVs. It is also important to note that the OEMs expenditure on bringing a new model (either SUV/Sedan/Hatchback) is the same; however the margins that the OEMs would make in the SUVs would be comparatively much higher! Hence; it is financially attractive too for launching a SUV.
Creta was undoubted leader in the segment and sold almost equal to Grand i10 volumes! Creta ranked 9th in the Top selling vehicles list and the performance was nothing short of a blockbuster!
Even Tata & Nissan have tried to make a mark with the Harrier & Kicks in the segment.
Saw launches from M&M (Alturas) & Honda (New CR-V) in FY19. But; the segment saw a decline in overall sales. Even the mighty Fortuner & Endeavour reported a double digit fall in volumes.
With stringent upcoming Emission and CAFE norms; the models in this segment are either going for a makeover or an upgrade.
Gypsy saw the end of production this year and hopefully should be replaced by Jimny. Even M&M is working on an updated Thar whose launch is due in FY20.
Vans reported the highest growth comparatively among all segments! Only Maruti models are in sale in this segment and clearly shows why Maruti is a market leader in India!
If you add Omni+Eeco sales for FY19; the numbers are almost equal to Honda Cars India volumes for FY19. Do not understand why no other OEM is even bothering to enter this segment.