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Auto Punditz have always been finicky about Automobiles Sales Statistics and we have been studying the Industry Trends very closely from the past 7 years. We are a close bunch of Auto Aficionados and strongly believe in the content that we post on our site. Many a times we let our statistics do the talking and let our readers visualize the data. However, we are wanting to expand our expertise and provide a much surreal experience to our readers.

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Indian Car Sales Figures – July 2017

July’17 was a transition phase for the Indian Auto Industry from a pre-GST era to the post-GST economy. The prices of majority of the models were cut due to the change in the taxation structure. The government’s stand on Hybrid models led the steep increase in the prices of Ciaz/Ertiga SHVS, Accord Hybrid, Camry Hybrid, etc. OEMs like Toyota, Maruti, Mahindra pushed their vehicles enough to compensate June’s loss and as a matter of fact Toyota grew a stupendous 800% in July’17 when compared to June’17! Maruti’s Nexa bet has played off really well and what they have done in the Indian market is nothing short but magical. Nexa could sell 32,860 with all its models combined! – At this speed, we could see Nexa overtake Hyundai’s numbers in coming time. Also splendid is Maruti’s numbers from its traditional channel (i.e. without Nexa) – It sold 1,20,438 units from its traditional models. The Product onslaught and differentiation in brand positioning is surely a case study for the other Global MNCs.

July’17 saw a YoY growth of healthy 15% and MoM growth of over 50%! The spurt was primarily due to the upcoming festive season in August (Rakshabandhan, Varamahalakshmi, Janmashtami, Ganesh Chaturthi to name a few). As requested by one of our reader, we are happy to present both MoM & YoY analysis in this month’s post. Do see how the OEM’s fared –

In MoM performance, only 2 OEMs experienced de-growth (GM & Nissan). Also in YoY analysis – apart from Renault, Nissan & GM; all OEMs saw a growth in their volumes. While GM is out of the game; the decline in numbers at the Renault-Nissan alliance is a serious concern to their global ambitions. The Alliance is in a close competition to become the Global No.1 and their Indian performance will be vital. July’17 also saw the birth of an Iconic Product – Compass. The pricing has been sweet and has already sent terror waves amongst the rivals. The Compass saw dispatch of 935 units and helped Fiat rub shoulders with Skoda’s volumes. We are positive about Compass’s potential to revive FCA’s fate in India. Let’s look at the modelwise analysis here:

Highlights:

  • Maruti & Nexa are on a roll – and the break through success of their two key products (rather new launches) was the key. Maruti’s Brezza & Nexa’s Baleno – Both crossed 15k units and were positioned in the Top 5 selling cars of July’17. Also commendable is Alto’s performance over years – It still sold >26k copies and could easily outshine its capable competitors (namely Kwid & Eon). Dzire numbers saw a hitch (we suspect a production concern after the steering column recall) or else it would’ve been much better. Even Dzire was the fastest product in Maruti’s stable to garner over a Lakh Bookings!
  • Hyundai has been on a backfoot after not that great success of Refreshed Grand i10 & Xcent. With Compass launch, it’ll be a difficult ride for the easily selling Creta as well. Hyundai is now overly dependent on i20 & Creta. Here’s what Hyundai’s strategy is – the launch of Next Gen Verna! Yes, New Product Launch is the key to success in Indian market as of today. Hyundai has timed the launch pretty well in the festive season and we are sure that they’ve aligned to production to get the volumes on board. It’ll definitely be a tough fight in front of the mighty City & Ciaz.
  • Mahindra XUV sold over 1200 units lesser than the Fortuner in July’17. That’s how ruthless the Indian market can be! The Indian consumer is now seeking value more than cost and has become ever brand conscious. And things have turned pretty difficult for the Indian OEM – losing its UV-leader crown to Maruti and the dropping volumes. However, the strong rural demand and acceptance is shielding it from the debacle.
  • Honda’s raking the moolah with the recently launched WRV. The Compact SUV from the Japanese OEM has got a wide acceptance for being Feature-rich, Butch looks and Decent Price. It has overtaken Ecosport’s volumes for second consecutive month and has also registered itself as the best selling Honda model for the month of July’17!
  • Tata is in the news for the forthcoming launch of Nexon. The product has got some seriously good reviews and looks promising. After Hexa & Tigor’s average success; Tata has a lot riding on the Nexon. We believe Nexon has all the ingredients to seal Tata’s position in the Top 5.
  • Toyota saw the highest fall in prices of its models post GST and the same reflected in their volumes as well. It sold crazy 9369 units of Crysta in July’17 made it the No.1 selling MUV of July’17! Similar was with Fortuner’s volumes – It sold over 3400 units and placed itself as the Best Selling Premium SUV!

Look at Top 25 selling models of July 2017 –

Top Selling Hatchbacks (entry & mid level) –

Top Selling Premium Hatches –

Top Selling Compact Sedans –

Top Selling Sedans –

Top Selling Compact SUVs –

Top Selling MUVs –

Top Selling SUVs –

Indian Car Sales Figures – June 2017

While the entire country was awaiting the biggest tax reform of the century; the Indian Auto Industry had to brace itself for yet another jittery month. The anticipation of price reduction kept many prospective customers at bay and even the OEMs/dealers weren’t ready to endure the loss for their stocks post price reduction (due to GST). Anyhow the retails numbers were much better than the numbers posted here (which is the dealer offtake data). The OEMs flooded the market with discounts and pull crowds into their respective showrooms. Even the automobile dealers were under pressure to reduce their respective stocks before GST implementation. The Industry in overall has gone through various challenges and the varying regulations have kept the OEMs on their backfoot. This led to the worst YoY degrowth Toyota has faced ever (YoY degrowth was over 85% and it ranked 10th in the list!). The Indian Auto Industry also de-grew over 11% YoY in June’17. The only silver lining is that all models have seen a significant price reduction after GST and will surely revive the demand – We expect the Industry to bounce back to double digit growth from July’17 onwards. Let’s look at the modelwise analysis here:

Highlights:

  • Even with the challenges revolving around GST, Maruti could post a positive growth. However, its bestsellers (Dzire, Swift & WagonR) couldn’t garner the second spot and lost it to Grand i10. Also the Nexa channel offerings – SCross & Ignis looks to be under pressure as the sales dwindle to all time low.
  • Hyundai’s star performer was again the Elite i20. It ranked No.1 in the Premium hatch category and dethroned Baleno from the top slot. Creta sales however was below par as the price reduction sought in SUV category was very high.
  • Honda is on a roll this year. The New City and the recently launched WRV has clearly revived the OEMs performance. WRV was able to overtake Ecosport’s numbers and has positioned itself strongly in the Compact SUV space. The strong feature list (Sunroof, Digipad & Cruise Control) in the WRV has made it a very attractive buy and the higher ground clearance has allowed to garner sales in upcountry markets as well. However, it seems to have cannibalized Jazz’s numbers to an extent – Jazz’s volumes have dropped below 1,500 units for the first time in past 15 months! Even the VW Polo sales were higher than Jazz in June’17.
  • Toyota is clearly disappointed with the way Indian Government has been changing the policy structure. Earlier the NGT ban on diesel vehicles, then followed by Demonetization and finally the GST. Because of this, Toyota had to bear tremendous losses and June’17 was a testament for it. The OEM clearly stopped its dispatches in June as the price decrease expected on its portfolio of products was very high (Fortuner prices were slashed by over 2 lakhs in July’17!).
  • While Renault had a blockbuster FY17; this year is full of challenges for the French automaker. Its dependence on a single model is costing it high and it seems to struggle without new launches. Any drop in Kwid sales impacts the OEM heavily and it isn’t able to significantly revive Duster’s sales (even post the launch of Petrol/CVT variant).
  • Mahindra yet again survives with the performance of its old warhorses (Bolero & Scorpio). With muti million dollar investment in new product development (Xylo, Quanto, TUV300, KUV100), it had expected to retain its dominance in UV segment. However, the poor sales figures of these models and stiff competition from the biggies like Maruti (Brezza) & Hyundai (Creta) has put the Indian OEM on its backfoot.

Look at Top 25 selling models of June 2017 –

Top Selling Hatchbacks (entry & mid level) –

Top Selling Premium Hatches –

Top Selling Compact Sedans –

Top Selling Sedans –

Top Selling Compact SUVs –

 

Top Selling MUVs –

Top Selling SUVs –

State-wise Car Sales Statistics – FY17

We have been closely tracking the state-wise car statistics in past 1 year. You can find the previous posts on the topic here and here. Indian demographics have always amazed us and the trend is very volatile. The same is seen in the statewise sales data as well. Ex: Kerala was the No.2 state in terms of Passenger vehicle sales in the first half of FY17, fell to No.5 position for the entire year. The other startling fact to be reiterated here is Maharashtra as a state alone sells more than 13 states in East Zone! Also there is no state from South Zone in the Top 3 states of FY17 (while South Zone is the second best zone in terms of numbers)! Also to be noted here is the volumes of Delhi market (without NCR sales) is over 2 Lakh units in previous FY.

The intent of this post is to highlight the contribution of individual states in overall passenger car sales and how seasonality effects sales in various regions of the sub-continent. A look at the Top Selling States for Apr’16-Mar’17 period:

Do find the Quarter-wise analysis here:

Indian Car Sales Figures – May 2017

‘I QUIT’ – these are the hardest words for anyone to utter. Generally an employee would quit an organization if he/she us not happy with the culture the company offers or if the growth opportunities are not ample or the remuneration is not adequate. Though we can cite many other reasons; these three looked suitable for the case presented here (General Motors exit from Indian market) –

  • Culture – While, Indian Government has promised a thriving environment with the promise of ‘Make in India’, tax-free zones, etc the policies have never been stable or OEM-friendly. Firstly acquiring land for setting up plant can have multiple hassles (or term it government approvals, land acquisition troubles, etc), policy changes have been pretty frequent as well. OEMs were taken by shock when NGT initiated Diesel-vehicle ban was temporarily imposed by Supreme Court; also sudden transition from BS3 to BS4 emission norms for all category of vehicles was threatening to 2-wheeler and commercial vehicle manufacturers. Even the home-grown Tata had gone through some of the troubles mentioned here. Recent news of jumping to BS6 norms by 2020 and all-electric vehicles by 2030 has made all OEMs wary about the amount of investments that’ll have to be made to survive in the Indian market.
  • Growth Opportunities – India has been an extremely competitive market where the top 4 players hold over 75% of market share. GM has struggled in its over 20 years of existence in the subcontinent. It played several bets (and with several brands) – initially with Opel, then Daewoo inspired models (say the matiz aka spark), then the Chevrolet and finally SAIC inspired models (Enjoy, Sail Twins). Also they expanded their network aggressively between 2011-15 pushed them harder to look into newer models to better the network profitability and sales volumes. However, the bets failed every single time! The reason the strategy failed – It was overly controlled by the Headquarters (Detroit). While Indian market had been extremely dynamic from beginning; GM lacked the leadership who could take progressive steps for the OEM here. They were busy doing the postmortem after every failure. The Karl Slym era was though extremely promising (during which the bestsellers touched the subcontinent – Beat & Cruze). But, even Karl left the path in between.
  • Remuneration – India has pre-dominantly been a hatchback market, which means lower margins for the OEMs and high initial investments (as the MNCs do not have the expertise in small cars). The amount of sales and margins the Global biggies make in the bigger markets is insane – Ex: Chevy sold 5,74,876 units of its best seller Silverado (stands No.2 in the best selling cars/trucks for US market) in 2016, which converts to 47,906 units/mth. The average price of this model is $50,385 (>Rs.32 Lakhs). When you compare this with the stats of its Indian sales, the numbers are extremely meager. Hence justifying the investment becomes all more difficult here. The same concern is troubling all other biggies (say VW, Toyota, Ford, etc). Look at the excerpt from ET

However, we believe GM has made an unforgivable mistake. Exiting Indian market at this stage has ensured that it wont be able to re-enter the Indian market (no more bets please!) and also the brand has taken an irrevocable downfall. GM forgot that it needed only 1 good product to gain its hold in the market (like what Duster/Kwid had done to Renault, Innova to Toyota, etc). It should have also learnt from the likes of Tata Motors which had struggled during the years and is now a formidable challenger to the No.4 slot. But it is both GM’s and Indian Consumers (who had bought Chevy products over the years) loss! It is also unfortunate to see that brands such as Peugeot, Kia are entering (or re-entering Peugeot’s case) and GM is giving up on the market.

Coming to May’17 business, it was a tough month for OEMs as consumers were confused to wait for clarity on GST implications and finalize their purchase. Also dealer fraternity were wary on the effect GST would have on the cars that were shipped from OEM to their stockyards. However, the Industry stood well and posted double digit growth. Good Monsoon forecast has positively supported consumer sentiments as well. While majority of the OEMs had a positive YoY growth; the likes of VW & Toyota experienced a fall in overall sales when compared to the same period last year. Let’s look at the modelwise analysis here:

Highlights:

  1. Nexa Channel (with S-Cross, Baleno, Ignis & Ciaz) posted a sales of 26,120 units! If we consider it as a different channel/brand than Maruti; it’ll emerge to be the No.3 player in the Indian market. Don’t be surprised to see it in the No.2 slot if the momentum continues in the coming times.
  2. Dzire launch was also in the news – The volume cruncher is now bigger and better! Huge aspirations now on the model and we are sure that it’ll deliver.
  3. Another important launch was VW’s Tiguan – In a segment which has always been dominated by Fortuner; it’ll be interesting to see how VW’s offering will fare. Only time’ll tell.
  4. GM’s exit (which was announced on 18th May) has already been discussed in detail. Now we can slowly see the numbers dwindling away from the above chart in coming months.
  5. Hyundai’s refreshed offerings – Grand i10 & Xcent did average. A mid-life makeover has ensured that the models continue their average volumes as last year and avoid degrowth. However, i20 & Creta have been the money-makers for both Hyundai and its dealer partners.
  6. Honda has 2 models in the Top 25 chart in May’17 – City & WRV. This signifies the importance of having refreshed/new products in the portfolio. This has also been the reason behind 13.3% YoY growth posted by the Japanese automaker.

Look at Top 25 selling models of May 2017 –

Top Selling Hatchbacks (entry & mid level) –

Top Selling Premium Hatches –

Top Selling Compact Sedans –

Top Selling Sedans –

Top Selling Compact SUVs –

Top Selling MUVs –

Top Selling SUVs –

May 2017 Car Sales – Snapshot

While the Industry was facing the heat of implementation of GST; only Toyota & VW (among the mass market brands) de-grew in May’17. Also the time couldn’t have been tougher for the luxury brands – From Demonetization to GST the ride has been very volatile for the Premium Auto Makers. May’16 also marks the exit and hence the sudden decline of the sales of General Motors (even then it posted figures more than that of Fiat!).